Posted on 10/22/2018 9:07:40 PM PDT by Ravi
see comments if interested...
D-43,504 (44.6%)
R-31,048 (31.8%)
I-22,328 (22.9%)
2016 BALLOT REQUESTS AS OF 10/24/16 FOR IA#1:
D-52,403 (45.0%)
R-35,770 (30.7%)
I-28,015 (24.0%)
These are equivalent points in the election cycles of 2016 and 2018. Blum(R) won in 2016 by 7.6% or about 29,500 votes. He has SOME room to spare not a lot. Having said that, this is a district the Dems really need in order to flip the house I believe. So compared to 2016, Dems down 0.4%, Reps up 1.1% and Indies down 1.1%.
OVerall slightly better than 2016. We will see if this holds for the next two weeks. I will post ballot RETURNS starting week of 29th.
Comments appreciated...
ping
Thanks for the update.
Eagles Up!
I appreciate the data the you and Larry are giving us
I think it looks promising
Thanks for posting.
Do you have any data or prediction on how the indies will vote?
I believe Iowa indies lean slightly D - I cannot confirm that. So with fewer I votes, that theoretically should be better for Blum.
Something that might be interesting is the turnout in these prior races to gauge what’s happening Election Day. Any swing by either party would be consequential. I’m thinking of Ohio-12 Special when Dems matched 2016 general and we were 40%.
I watched 4 Indy voters being interviewed on Fox & Friends and they sounded just like LIBS no difference between the two, DONT know why they registered Indy they were ALL 4 Dems!!!!
Got mine.
I agree. We lost specials because R voters stayed not home not because they went and voted for the D. If we can keep our turnout like 2016, we SHOULD be able to match the results.
That would be my guess too “under normal circumstances”...but this year is anything but normal. As Potus said in Texas, this is “the election of Kavanaugh, the caravan, tax cuts, and common sense”. I think Independents will favor our side on those issues.
Makes for a great closing argument...
#1. You did a nice job of analyzing the information and what it means/could means.
Thanks.
Thank you so much for posting. Good luck to us all, in Iowa!
One thing that is unknown in all of these ballots is how many Dems are actually voting Republican versus GOP defections. I will speculate that the Dem defections will be much higher than the GOP ones adding up to even more Republican wins.
Thanks for the post !
the liberals all live in Iowa City. when the farmers come out to vote, it will be a huge Republican victory again. why do you think they cant pass legal pot here? its the farmers, its always the farmers!
I like reading Larry and Ravi’s reports but am concerned as to how the independents are breaking. We could outpace our performance from the last election but still see the middle of the road squishes abandon us.
I believe that this entire “pre-existing conditions” healthcare lie is aimed at swaying the independents.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.