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Not necessarily. Campaigns mean something. Many voters don't pay attention until late. There are new ads funded by a burst of money at the last minute or the candidates horde ad money until the end. The republican ads have been more hard hitting in the last few weeks. And voters do change their minds. They are not like you and me. We know which party we will vote for in 2028. Many voters don't know.

Voters are fickle and we all know the party in the White House loses seats in the mid term election except for two times - in 2002 (after 9-11 - that is unique and makes sense) and in 1998 - I think the Dems gained 5 seats, which shocked the republicans and they forced Gingrich out of the Speakership. They believe it was backlash against the pubs threat to impeach Clinton, which they did anyway. That was the first time since 1934 the party in the White House picked up seats in a midterm election.

So the party in power almost always loses seats, but it is apparent that the Kavanaugh hearings changed the dynamics of many races. As you know, there are many factors that affect races.

In Virginia, Comstock is a goner. That has kind of been known since the day after the presidential election and Dave Bratt is a bit shaky due to an avalanche of the dems ads.

In 2010, Obama's favorability rating in Rasmussen was 50% on election morning and the dems still lost a huge 63 seats. Republicans showed up and Obama's voters did not.