Posted on 10/25/2018 10:31:25 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
Time to take another Senate seat out of the safe column for Democrats? A month ago, incumbent Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow had a massive 23-point lead over Republican challenger John James in the EPIC-MRA Poll. RealClearPolitics wrote that “there is little evidence that [James] poses a threat to Debbie Stabenow, who holds double-digit leads and is at about 50 percent in the polls.”
Today, the Detroit Free Press finds much more evidence of that threat — and perhaps for an across-the-board collapse for Democrats in Michigan:
[I]n the U.S. Senate race, where the Democratic incumbent, U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, has been widely expected to enjoy a double-digit victory over Republican challenger John James, her lead is down to 7 points, the poll found. Stabenow led James by 23 points in a September poll by the same firm, EPIC-MRA of Lansing.
A significant factor in the tightening race over the last month is an uptick in the approval rating of Republican President Donald Trump and a narrowing of the voter enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, the poll suggests.
Prior to this poll, Stabenow led by double digits in every poll during the cycle save one, a Mitchell Research poll that put her at 51% and up nine points. This new EPIC-MRA poll is the first since July in any series that puts Stabenow below 50% support. In four weeks, Stabenow has dropped seven points while James has gained nine — a remarkable charge that might indicate momentum shifting to the challenger as voters get fully engaged.
It’s not just Stabenow, however. The poll commissioned by the Free Press shows significant gains for other Republican candidates on the statewide ballot. The gubernatorial race is down to five points in a race that was significantly tighter from the start:
The Democratic leads over Republicans in the Michigan races for governor and secretary of state have shrunk to 5 and 4 points respectively, and the attorney general’s race is now a dead heat, according to a new poll commissioned by the Free Press and its media partners. …
Dynamics can change between now and Election Day on Nov. 6, but based on the latest numbers, “if it’s a Blue Wave, it’s not going to be a very big wave,” EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn said Wednesday.
Gretchen Whitmer has led Bill Schuette throughout the race for governor, but not with the same wide gaps as Stabenow enjoyed until now. Whitmer has led by double digits in a couple of polls but hasn’t been at or above 50% in most of them. Schuette has spent most of the race in the mid-30s. The difference between the two EPIC-MRA polls is actually relatively small; the change is mostly that Schuette has picked up four points.
Interestingly, the Free Press fails to mention one potential source for this Republican resurgence. The name Brett Kavanaugh appears nowhere in their analysis, which seems exceedingly strange. Instead, the pollster gives credit to James’ TV ads for denting Stabenow’s image, raising her unfavorables eight points to 39%. The pollster even notes that “many U.S. Senate races have shifted in favor of Trump and the Republicans.”
Indeed they have, but why? One might think that the national debacle of watching Senate Democrats interrogate Kavanaugh over slang in his high-school yearbook might have something to do with the sudden correlative burst in Republican voter enthusiasm. It’s not even worth a mention?
At any rate, if this poll is accurate, suddenly Democrats have to start using resources to defend seats previously considered safe. That won’t be good news for Democrats fighting a red tide in Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and Montana, among other places. And it might still be very good news for John James, who deserved at least a little of the attention the national media showered all over Robert O’Rourke in Texas.
Army Ranger Apache Pilot...flight leader for 2 Apache platoons during Operation Iraqi Freedom
Bachelor of Science from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point
Master of Supply Chain Management and Information Systems from Penn State
Masters of Business Administration (MBA) from the University of Michigan
President of James Group International. Led the company from $35 million to $137 million in revenue while creating 100 additional jobs in Michigan.
It would be a great win!
The lead didn’t drop 16 points. It was never that large to begin with.
Who knows, but my uneducated guess says R’s pick up 8 Senate seats, and lose a few house seats.
The Dems and media will be apoplectic...
Debbie Fat Cow is the upset pick of this election.
bump
An “across the board collapse”
Beautiful
I need to drop $50 on the James campaign.
Election night 2018 will be almost as epic as 2016.
The only news is that the FSM is now recognizing that.
I like this guy’s background. And Trump is behind the guy 100%.
The Kavanaugh effect was caused by the DemonShits visibly trying to frame an innocent man for attempted rape and, when that didn’t work, repeated, actual gang rape. That having failed, they’re trying to frame our PRESIDENT Trump for a failed effort to mass bomb his political enemies with fake bombs, just as they tried to frame him for fake “Russian collusion.” We’ll still win the midterms if he pounds away on this theme.
I lie to pollsters.
I bet a lot of people do...................
I sent John a contribution last week. A victory here will mean we pick up at least 8 seats.
Trump will be in Michigan before too long.
Contribute to JJ’s campaign if you can. It would be money well spent.
He is a remarkable man and would serve us well as he has shown with his military career.
Yup....some timely donations and a President Trump rally will pull him over the top.
Captain James is only the second candidate to whom I've EVER given money. I'll be sending him some more next week when my pension hits the bank.
Contribute if you can.
It’ll make you feel good.
Obama is going to Detroit to campaign for Stebenow.
james is as well qualified a candidate as you’ll find.
hope Michigan can get him to DC
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