Posted on 10/26/2018 7:57:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
About that Blue Wave…
Ed Morrissey wonders if it's the "Kavanaugh Effect," but in the latest poll Debbie Stabenow's lead has dropped 16 points from last month, putting her "safe" seat perhaps within reach of GOP challenger John James. Ed reminds us that RealClearPolitics wrote just a few weeks ago that “there is little evidence that [James] poses a threat to Debbie Stabenow," but clearly that's old news. He goes on to say that Stabenow's near-collapse might represent "an across-the-board collapse for Democrats in Michigan."
Stabenow of course holds a Senate seat. While it would be nice -- great, even -- for the GOP to knock out Stabenow, the outcome of who will control the Senate next year isn't much in doubt.
Nevertheless, this does have me thinking about the House side of things.
The numbers all say that the Dems take the House with a slender majority, and they've said that to varying degrees for months now. But it just doesn't feel that way. A booming economy, wage growth, tax cuts... are American voters really willing to risk all that by giving the House to a party which promises to undo those things?
Maybe the Dems are running better candidates in the competitive districts this year. Maybe people prefer divided government. Maybe suburban women really are fed up with Trump, even after Kavanaugh. Maybe the country has just lost its freaking mind.
Anyway, I let my heart get in the way of my judgement in 2012, and allowed myself to really believe that the country would never reelect a failure like Barack Obama. I was so wrong, and it blinded me to Trump's chances in 2016. I swung too far towards feelings in 2012, and too far towards the polls in 2016.
So I know what the numbers say, but I also know how this election feels.
Am I allowing my personal pendulum swing back too far in the 2012 direction, or is November 6, 2018, going to come as a sweet shock like November 8, 2016, did?
Something I stumbled across while I was writing the first half of this column might hold the answer. Nate Silver's latest FiveThirtyEight report is headlined, "Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense?"
Not on the face of it, surely — but maybe we can make some sense of it.
Silver asks, "So, what gives?" and goes on to explain:
Republicans are doing about as well — or as badly — as you might expect given the long history of the president’s party performing poorly at the midterms and that Trump is at least somewhat unpopular.
In fact, let’s take Trump entirely out of the equation for a moment. On average in midterm elections since World War II, the president’s party has experienced a popular vote swing of 7.3 percentage points against it, relative to how it did in the House popular vote in the presidential year two years earlier. Republicans won the House popular vote by only 1.1 percentage points in 2016, for example, so if you knew nothing else other than that a Republican was president, you’d expect them to lose the popular vote by 6.2 percentage points this year. That’s only 2 or 3 percentage points better than their 8- or 9- point deficit on the generic ballot and in our forecast of the House popular vote this year.
That last sentence might be the tell we've been looking for.
All things being equal, the Democrats typically need a 5- or 6-point advantage in the popular vote to win Congress. That's because they run up the tally (by means both fair and foul) in their safe urban enclaves, while GOP victories even in safe districts tend to be more closely won. Kind of like Hillary Clinton "winning" the popular vote on ramped up numbers in California, but losing the Electoral College in close races in PA, MI, WI.
And what happened when you take the Dems' "8- or 9- point deficit on the generic ballot" and subtract the "2 or 3 percentage points" Silver mentioned above?
You get something very close to the 5- or 6-point advantage I was just reminding you about.
So numbers versus feelings... it's just too close to know which one to trust.
The Polls are baloney, we hold the House and take 5-7 Senate seats.
Rs pick up 1 net in the House.
:)
Senate was NEVER in play... always was going to be a gain for R’s... folks claiming a D win of the senate were either liars, or flat out ignoramuses.
Even before Kavanaugh I called Senate 6+ GOP, and if the winds blue just right they could get double digits.
Kavanaugh and the insanity since has done just about everything it can to move those winds to “just right”.
House, honestly without Kavanaugh the GOP was going likely lose the house.. since that fiasco... see absolutely no way the GOP doesn’t hold the house... and honestly would not be surprised if the GOP wound up gaining few... Time will tell.
My assessment is as follows:
Women in suburban districts are usually political independents and can vote either way. Generally they will swing toward Dims this cycle.
(Ultimately, they have no core values).
When all said and done the House majority will be 2-5 seats, either way.
And we pick up 5-7 in the Senate.
Depends on if we get over the margin of fraud which has gotten significantly higher since 2016 when they bought they had already adjusted for it.
I “feel” the same way I did in 2016. I knew Trump was going to win. I did not trust or pay attention to the polls. I just watched the news when almost every night Trump was holding another rally with 10,000-15,000 people. He did at least 5 or 6 of these a week, for more than a year. I also knew he was going to win because I talked to a lot of people that were quietly voting for him, but were afraid of speaking up too loudly in fear of getting beaten up. But on the sly, they would give us the thumbs up. I feel the same way this year.
I hope we get at least enough adds in the senate to allow us to tell MurCOWsko and Collins to sit down and shut up since we would no longer need them for a majority vote. I still don’t trust the GOP enough to wish for a super majority that could overide a veto by President Trump.
7+ gained in the Senate.
10-15 gained in the House.
The economy is amazing. Unemployment is historically low. The world is safer. The vast majority are thrilled with what Trump has done.
The only way any other outcome is remotely possible is through massive election fraud. If that happens it must be punished immediately.
We will... We will lose Corker and Flake.. but we will gain Romney...
GOP will net gain more than 2 seats in the Senate. So Murkowski, Collins and Romney will be checked... at least for things that just need a simple majority.
If the GOP does gain 9 or 10, they will have influence because most things in the senate need 60 votes. But for pure majority things, like Judges... THANK YOU HARRY REID... They will not be able to derail anything.
If we do get to the numbers I expect, I hope Murkowski is stripped of all her committee seats.
Trump is hugely supported, the Senate was never in play... the real race has ALWAYS been the house.....
The Kavanaugh affair was the single dumbest political move I have seen by any party in my lifetime....
IN one foul swoop, the Democrats engaged and enraged an apathetic GOP base, and angered the hell out of the middle as well.... They were skating to an easy house win, and just blew it all to hell....
We will see how it all plays out, but the GOP will win significant Senate seats...
The House is the only thing of consequence this election cycle... and if the GOP gain seats in the house... the crazy will be unleashed all over again... because they are completely incapable of accepting they are losing.
My prediction: Dems net pick up of 25 seats.
I hope you guys are correct. I will be so glad when it’s over.
'He who votes doesn't count, he who counts the votes counts' ~J. Stalin
Hillary is not at the top of the ticket. 5% no shows for women that voted in 16. Obama not on ticket. Hillary lost several percent of the ‘12 black vote. The slide will continue. Young not nearly as motivated as the older adults. Trump working the voter fraud issue. A long way to go on that, but little or no increase is a possibility. I think we hold both houses and pick up a few suprise wins.
on a certain level, it makes sense that the rising GOP tide (as evidenced by the likelihood of picking up several Senate seats)should float all boats ... also i’m guessing a lot of pissed off folk are going to vote straight GOP rather than spend a lot of time trying to pick out the possible one or two “good” Democrats on the ballot ... as bad as any GOP candidate may be, ANY Dem is going to be worse ... plus, once a person who’s descended from a multi-generation of straight-ticket Dem voters breaks the pattern a single time, the mental shackles really do fall off and a certain amount of thoughtfulness can begin ...
Collins did just fine with Kavanaugh ... she was clearly the designated cleanup batter for the GOP Senate and her speech justifying not just her vote but all votes from the GOP brilliantly covered and analyzed every relevant issue ...
I am in agreement with you even after today’s arrest regarding the pipebomb incidents.
If The GOP holds the house, what will the Dems blame? Certainly not the electoral college.
Agree, house stays red by a few and shoot the moon in the senate.
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