“We can’t go by election results. We should instead go by the polls.”
Posted on 10/28/2018 2:12:43 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
....Nate Silver explains why he doesn’t use early voting data to help forecast elections: Polls are more reliable, given that we don’t know all of the factors involved in early voting. Nate also answers questions from listeners...
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Larry, what say you?
“Polls are more reliable,”
Hey Nate,ya better check with Hilda on that....
Reliability in statistics and psychometrics is the overall consistency of a measure.[1] A measure is said to have a high reliability if it produces similar results under consistent conditions. “
Reliability does not imply validity. That is, a reliable measure that is measuring something consistently is not necessarily measuring what you want to be measured. For example, while there are many reliable tests of specific abilities, not all of them would be valid for predicting, say, job performance.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_(statistics)
“Polls are more reliable, given that we don’t know all of the factors involved in early voting. “
I bet Nate will wish he hadn’t said that comes Nov 6th.
ALso does Nate factor into polls what percentage of people say opposite what they intend to actually vote, or if they have to contact lots more people than actually get to reply? Polls are not really a solid sampling of the people where - the little I know of early voting you can solidly say how many of certain parties reutrned early ballot or showed up at voting booths.
So you do have solid number of what groups have voted even if you don’t know how they voted.
Nate Sliver gets hus check from ABC.
If the national socialist party were ahead, the early voting would screamed from every rooftop and toilet bowl by ABCNNBCBS.
And Trumps bomber would not be needed.
Duh.... According to Nate, polls are more accurate than the actual votes they are predicting.
Exactly.
“We can’t go by election results. We should instead go by the polls.”
Polls are extremely flawed and we’ve seen Trump and other Republicans under-poll in recent years.
1. They’re using the polls to raise money thinking their big money donors want to be on the ‘winning team.’
2. They’re using the polls to create the illusion of a wave or momentum as inevitable. Hoping that keeps some Republicans home or is in some other way self-fulfilling prophecy.
3. They’re clueless living in their opinion bubble and genuinely believe their own b.s.
4. Republican voters aren’t cooperating with pollsters viewing them as part of the enemy MSM complex. They either avoid answering or give false information.
5. If you look at the ongoing NYT polls, they make 1000 phone calls to get 20-30 responses. The bias is towards those who would cooperate with the NYT, answer a phone call from a stranger, and there’s no guarantee of random sampling.
6. At what point is Nate Silver going to be viewed as an unreliable pollster? He got Obama right. He’s been off on election after election. There’s a certain amount of randomness and lucky guessing in polling. He’s cashed in on one success for years now.
Polls are close to meaningless anymore as more and more people have removed themselves from being polled each year by avoiding being polled intentionally or inadvertently. People have been either giving up landlines altogether or switching to VOIP lines like Googlevoice that can screen calls so the pollster never gets through. We live in Ohio and last election were polled frequently. Usua)y push polls but at least one legitimate poll every election. With Googlevoice nothing this year. So on top of the increasing number that will either lie or say they are undecided the population pollsters reach is increasingly not reflective of the voting population. Early voting is at least a sign of enthusiasm.
Polls that do not account for fringe behavior are understandable. As voting behavior shifts in large measure to new practices, well, the poll grows out-of-step with reality.
“We can’t go by election results. We should instead go by the polls.”
I don’t believe Nate Plastic.
I don’t envy the pollsters in this environment but that is not to say that I will help them. I hate picking up the phone and an automatic voice says “... poll ...” with no way to be put on DO_NOT_CALL list. Everybody else I just pickup after 2 rings and keep quiet. Amazing reduction in calls!
It is fun to go back to this guy and watch his 2016 model go into the tank! I’m sure that they have made improvements BUT will it work this time?
Nate...ya better get into the real world, Americans by the millions do not trust pollsters or pundits...period. Your poll technics, methods & surveys carry zero to little accuracy, so , I suggest you quit your high handed expertise to all of us deplorables, who by the way could care less what you say or do!!!
Idiot
That does not support the concept that in 2018 polls are more accurate than early returns, or are any more accurate than tea leaves.
didn’t this guy also dismiss the LA Times daily poll in 2016 as “unreliable”?
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