"Whoa, this is big: In state X, the GOP has made up 30.07% of early ballots cast vs. 32.90% for Democrats, but two years ago Democrats made up 33.17% of early ballots and Republicans only 28.25%... and the GOP won that race two years ago!"
Reminds me of all the gushing "look at how amazing these early voting numbers are for Hillary Clinton!" mainstream media news articles in 2016.
They weren’t amazing numbers for Hillary. We were able to use EV data to predict Trump wins in FL, OH, NC, and IA with early vote data. It isn’t ‘over-analysis’. It is the best indicator available of what the electorate looks like.
Actually this would seem to suggest the Dem base is not as fired up in 2018 as they were in 2016.