The unseen factors in early voting, are all Republican voters voting for the Republican candidate, and all democrat voters voters voting for the democrat candidate. I’m sure there are many Reagan democrats not voting for their socialist/communist candidate. The unseen factor is the Independent voter, or the undecided voter(someone I will never understand) and which lever they will pull, but I feel strongly they will lean Republican.
And we need to factor in the Walk Away Movement voters. There are at least hundreds of thousands of them. Not that many overall, but enough to make a difference. Most of them don’t want to face the flack for voting R so they’ll vote and keep it to themselves.