SpaceX Falcon Heavy and NASA crewed launches will fund BFR development

New Big Future ^ | October 29, 2018 | Brian Wang

[SunkenCiv]

If SpaceX gets lucky the BFR development costs could come in at the $2 billion low-end estimate. Elon Musk had estimated that it would cost $2 billion to 10 billion to develop. A few more critical successes over the next year will enable SpaceX to solidify the finances and funding for the BFR. The needed critical successes are the NASA crewed launch certification in mid-2019 and successful Falcon Heavy launches in 2019.

SpaceX has pre-sold a moon orbit tourist flight to a Japanese billionaire. This was likely for $500 to $800 million.

The SpaceX Falcon Heavy already has up to seven launches lined up. Commercial and government launch buyers are seeing the value in using the larger rocket to directly place satellites in geosynchronous orbit. Continued launch success in 2019 could bring the Falcon Heavy to five or six launches per year.

SpaceX should become certified for NASA crewed launches in mid-2019. SpaceX will make about $300 million for each of those launches.

The $2 billion lowball estimate for the BFR development must include

• completing the raptor engine
• building one full BFR rocket
• preparing the test launch site
• all sub-orbital testing
• preparing the launch site and landing sites
• a successful 18-24 month orbital testing program

If the SpaceX BFR succeeds on its first orbital like the SpaceX Falcon Heavy, then the cost of BFR development will be in the $2 billion to $2.5 billion range.

Costs would go up if there were challenges completing the final design and construction of the BFR or in the testing phases.

SpaceX is arranging a $500 million loan via Goldman Sachs. SpaceX could afford another $2 billion in loans with firm Falcon Heavy revenue and the NASA crewed launch revenue.

[SunkenCiv]

thanks fieldmarshaldj:

Parker Solar Probe Becomes Fastest-Ever Spacecraft
NASA | 10/30/2018
Posted on 10/30/2018 1:08:09 PM PDT by Gamecock
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3701300/posts

[TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed]

You have made your choice.

[TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed]

Dead serious.

Your life is a stake.

[TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed]

You have made your choice.

[SunkenCiv]

When the surveyors came through this area nearly 200 years ago, they marked out what became the section line roads as well as the future property line markers. Because the regular division of a spherical surface into squares won't quite work, here and there the north-south roads across the countryside don't quite line up. I live fairly close to one of those corners, which four townships come together. If you root around with Google satellite view, you'll find some of these types of corners.

This won't of course have any impact on the TrollInThoughtWordAndDeed, because he's absurdly stupid and self-deluded, and looking around some more will find that the surveyors' long experience with the curvature of the Earth is attacked by people just as absurdly stupid and self-deluded as TrollInThoughtWordAndDeed.

My guess is, some of the Flat Earth a-holes got to where they were by their self-delusion and paranoia about the quite real Apollo missions to the lunar surface, you know, the jokers who deny that the Apollo landings ever took place. Flat Earth is just one more step down that very stupid road, as it denies that anyone can orbit the Earth, and therefore the Moon (which is, btw, in orbit around the Earth, semantic hobgoblins notwithstanding) is just a big flat image.

Piso Theory and False Eschatology

Both the idiots who claim there were no manned missions to the Moon, and the Flat Earthers, remind me of the mental defectives who claimed, completely seriously, that the Roman Empire never existed, that it was hoaxed. Yes, you read that right, there was once upon a time an online advocate (possibly more than one) of Piso Theory, the view that someone had hoaxed the whole Roman Empire, because it was important for people to believe that the Roman Empire used to exist. His constant line was, "I don't come to debate. I come to inform." I'm getting the same vibe from TrollInThoughtWordAndDeed.

TrollInThoughtWordAndDeed seems to think that repeating "WATER IS FLAT" is somehow factual -- which it isn't -- and represents a compelling argument for a flat Earth -- which it doesn't. It's just stupid that the moron continues to repeat something that is so obviously a LIE, while claiming that his view is the only valid form of Christianity.

The Empty Can Makes the Most Noise

I've actually enjoyed the Flat Earth stupidity in the recent past -- after one of the SpaceX launches, which carried at least one camera along to make sure the payload deployed, and the picture showed quite clearly the oblate spheroid we call Earth, the Flat Earth nitwit who'd borrowed (ahem) the video had a really convincing argument, he kept yelling, "It's FAKE! Look how FAKE!" And that was the sum of his argument -- all the evidence is contrary to what Flat Earthers claim, so the only thing they can do is tell you not to believe your own eyes and thousands of years of human experience. All Flat Earthers are just stuck on stupid, there's nothing that can be done until they get their meds adjusted, or they stroke out and die.

Some Sidebars

The Coriolis Effect

For instance, a German gun of 21-cm bore called ‘Big Bertha’ was used in 1918 to shell Paris from a distance of 122 km. Over such distances the inclusion of the Coriolis effect is at least as important as the consideration of deflection by the wind.

Artillery and Coriolis E. Linacre and B. Geerts

Curvature and Refraction

[TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed]

SunkenCiv,

Water on the earth is flat. That can be verified with a laser - and your own eyes, if you care to believe them.

Your insults were prophecy long ago. 2 Peter 3

You are now fulfilling the prophecy.

This is your destiny. Matthew 12:35-37

It does not have to be.

You can repent all the way up to your dying day.

After then, it will be too late.

Man is destined to die once, and then face judgment.

You do not want to be an unrepentant sinner in the hands of an angry God.

[NorthMountain]

I have chosen to side with the truth.

You?

I pity you.

[Openurmind]

In 240 BC a man named Eratosthenes stuck a stuck in the ground at noon on the summer solstice and fairly accurately measured the arc and radius of earth as a sphere.

[TruthInThoughtWordAndDeed]

NorthMountain,

You are experiencing Stockholm Syndrome.

The door is open.

You just need to walk through it.

[Moonman62]

I'm afraid to ask how they explain the shadows in the craters near the terminator.

[NorthMountain]

Dude ... follow your own advice.

Seriously ... get away from the computer, step through the open basement door (you just need to walk through it), and live a little. More than a little, actually. See the world for yourself. Go sailing. Just go to the beach! You're trapped in delusions of your own making.

[NorthMountain]

Nice pic. Yours?

[Moonman62]

It’s a NASA picture I got off the Internet.

[phormer phrog phlyer]

Thanks for your input, I have flown for several decades.

Great circle (shortest distance between two points on a sphere, where one flies an arc) routes come into effect on distances of 100 to 200 miles, it is very noticeable on greater distances

If the earth was flat, there would be a constant course between any two given points. Flying a constant course on a long leg and one will not get to their destination.

[Magnum44]

LOL. Love your post...especially the “stroke out and die” part. 😂

[Magnum44]

LOL. I love how he says in post 84 “you have made your choice”. 😂 He is so serious about it....

[SunkenCiv]

You’re an idiot. Oh, and for spreading false doctrine, you’re going to burn in Hell for eternity. Jackass.

[SunkenCiv]

It's remarkable how much false eschatology grows out of mental illness, and how much is found in science topics and history topics here on FR. I had some stupid ****head yap about how I had to "REPENT" regarding some archaeology topic just a couple of weeks ago. Mind you, I don't get involved in any religious subforum threads, apart from one that I remember that was about the catacombs in Rome. Troll behavior is stimulating, it just doesn't stimulate discussion or debate, because such trolls are always stupid and incapable of debate.

[SunkenCiv]

Heh, great example! It will not sink in for the troll, but I consider it very helpful. Flights to Europe from the Eastern Seaboard overfly the waters around Iceland, trips from the west coast to the Orient overfly the waters off Alaska. Obviously they don't do that in order to waste time and money and burn more fuel.

[SunkenCiv]

I'm afraid to ask how they explain the shadows in the craters near the terminator.

They don't have an explanation, because they don't make any sense, or think things through, or understand principles of logic, cause-effect, or the value of evidence.