“...the latest poll from The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.”
Who? Never heard of them. Has anyone else? Do they have a worthy track record in polling?
A court ordered the VA 7th been redrawn so the district is very different from the district map in 2012. All the GOP leading areas east of I-95 were removed.
Okay, this is from another article from the Sept. 25 “Washington Post:”
“Spanberger, a former CIA officer and political newcomer, leads Brat 47 percent to 42 percent among all potential voters, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday. Two percent favor Libertarian Joe Walton, and 9 percent are undecided.
“Spanberger’s lead shrinks when the poll applies two different models to the race in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, a mix of suburban and rural territory in the central part of the state that stretches from Culpeper to Nottoway County.
“The candidates are tied at 47 percent when the survey assumes turnout will follow historical norms for midterm elections. Spanberger leads 48 percent to 45 percent — a statistically insignificant margin — when the model projects a Democratic surge.
“The poll finds Spanberger with a hefty advantage in the Richmond suburbs, where President Trump’s sagging popularity is thought to be a drag on the Republicans. Spanberger leads Brat 58 percent to 30 percent in Henrico County, where Trump was soundly defeated in 2016. She leads 50 percent to 35 percent in Chesterfield County, which Trump narrowly won.
“But Brat leads in rural areas, where Trump remains popular, by a margin of 57 percent to 35 percent.
“This is a tale of two districts,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. ‘The Richmond suburbs that backed Clinton in 2016 support Spanberger, while the Trump strongholds are firmly behind Brat. The reason this race is so close right now is because there are more voters in the suburban areas...’”
What about Rep. Bart?
“polls”
Little poll demons be busy one week out. Desperate to keep Rs home.
How can you not beat somebody named “Spamburger”?
This is a perfect district to apply the new found increasing support from African Americans and Hispanic Americans for Trump/ Republicans.
Make no mistake, President Donald Trump is the real Republican candidate in each race.
A California Public Policy Institute poll of 11 Battleground Congressional districts in California found that by 49/45 Hispanics want a Republican House.
But this district is only 7% Hispanic you say, of course but that’s still a nice little boost.
Nevertheless, the bigger boost comes from African Americans, yes African Americans whose approval of President Trump has jumped 11 points in one month.
In next door Maryland,where the White Republican incumbent Governor is crushing a Black former head of the NAACP; and he is doing so with 21% of Black voter support.
Bites this big into Democrat bases lead to incumbent Republican victories, and it will in Virginia 7.