After re-reading, I think I may have misinterpreted your point, when you said: “China will not react like everyone else is forecasting”.
I interpreted it that they would have surprisingly damaging countermeasures they would enact against the USA.
Now I wonder if you meant simply that the Chinese economy would not be as badly hurt by US tariffs, as many here have speculated.
Its possible they may be able to print more money, and keep their economy stimulated. Time will tell. 2019 will probably reveal if it is serious or not.
One thing I noticed in your analysis (from your link), is that you seemingly discounted the effects of trans-shipments into the American market. In one place you say that the American volume is not such a big part of Chinese exports, and that the high value products go to Japan, Korea and Europe. But elsewhere you point out that much of these products are ultimately shipped into the US market, through the back door.
It is important to note that there has been an unprecedented amount of activity during the Trump Administration, re-negotiating trade deals. NAFTA was re-negotiated after a quarter century. New trade deals were also agreed with the EU, Japan and Korea. Unprecedented. Negotiations on one such deal typically run several years.
One thing is in common with all those deals - new mechanisms to throttle trans-shipments of communist Chinese products into the American market. There was some arm twisting, but overall, folks signed up to this program pretty quick, because of the growing fear of communist aggression, and the consensus that the International community needs to manage this growing threat.
Those trade deals will likely be ratified in the Senate, and go into effect during 2019.
Yes. What I meant was that the Chinese economy will not be as seriously affected as everyone is speculating.
To really hurt China via tariffs, you would need to halt ALL imports to the United States from everywhere. China is the manufacturer of the world.
More importantly, a renegotiation along the lines of fairness, like what Trump is suggesting would be a welcome solution. Most of the Chinese factories that I work with welcome it.
Why isn’t it implemented?
Because China has other arrangements with other nations that puts high tariffs on inbound American products so that inbound products from Japan, Korea, Germany etc, would have a competitive advantage. That has to end.
But will need to renegotiate with all the other trade partners with China.