[Teacher317]

At this point, most seem to agree that it is now all about the House. Seat #218 is what matters (absent some faithless RINOs).

The 34 House seats in the "tossup" category...
Current Dem seats: MN 1 and 7, NV 3 and 4
Current GOP seats: CA 10, 25, 39, 45, and 48... FL 15 and 26.... IA3... IL6... KS2... KY6... ME2... MI 8 and 11... MT... NC9... NJ 3 and 7... NM2... NY 19 and 22... PA 1 and 16... TX 7 and 32... UT4... VA 5 and 7... WA8

The Dems need 15 of those 34. This is the battle for the next 5 days.

I'll try to list out the 34 races in a thread this weekend to make the "Race to 218" more visible for us.

[Major Matt Mason]

You can be sure that if the GOP holds serve, there will be as many seats contested as is necessary to flip the House to the Dems. It'll be no different than the Democrats scheming to prevent Trump from being inaugurated after the 2016 election.

[laplata]

Thank you.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

THANK YOU I can’t tell those of you working on this for us how much we appreciate it!!! There are a few here on FR working on these numbers vigorously to keep the rest of us off the ledges!!! LS was the ONLY one in 2016 and WE ALL were driving him crazy, I am so happy to see that this election there will be a few of you helping to keep us away from the Valium bottles!!!! THANK YOU AGAIN!!!

[PreciousLiberty]

Thanks for the post - very good news!

Turn out the vote!!! MAGA!!!

[faithhopecharity]

Thanks! It’s very hard to believe people could vote for D after obammy HilLIARy and Feinstein. And with pelousy and mad maxine waters shooting their mouths off.

[Nifster]

Quit using polls

Our own Ravi and LS give analysis based on real voting data

[monkeyshine]

That’s the first time I’ve heard the statistic that ‘30 of the 34 vacant seats leaning left are currently GOP held’. I know the numbers shift, and I know the GOP has a lot more vacancies in the House than the Dems, but I didn’t put it together that the ‘balance of power’ rests on nearly all of the GOP vacancies.

It’s not that credible, on its face, to believe that 90% of the GOP vacancies will flip. But clearly the polls indicate it.

So what’s missing? Could be that the district maps changed, slight demographic shifts, local issues and local personalities at play, or... like in 2016 possibly many people are not willing to tell pollsters the truth.

Of the polls where I checked the numbers, there are roughly 7% refuse to say or do not know, and some of them are ridiculously small. NV4 for example has a MoE of 8.1! Many if not all of the others have a MoE around 5. That’s a big margin.

I don’t want to be overly optimistic but think there is a sleeping unmeasured element - people who are not going to tell strangers on the phone that they support “a racist, sexist, xenophobe, stoker-of-violence” that are not measured in these polls and that in the final tally GOP is going to do much better than the pollsters and MSM think.

[thoughtomator]

RCP is polluted with a lot of polls from biased outlets like CNN, so consider anything you see there to be the floor performance for the GOP in a worst-case scenario. All real possibilities are to the upside of RCP predictions.

[TakeChargeBob]

I just developed a sheet that copied the RCP categorizations so I can monitor the election. I appreciate your effort and I think it will be a good tool.

A few comments:
- You missed FL 27 in your list of the 30 R toss ups.
- Even though it appears that the actual EV is important to review and the polls are somewhat questionable, the RCP list is good to use as that should be a reasonable guide to monitor. From that list we can see easily see movement in any of the races under each of the categories listed under RCP. The RCP combines Likely and Lean in one category - it lists the Likely first and the lean directly underneath in alphabetic by state and numeric within state order. I made separate columns for Likely and Leans. I think your sharing this info would be a great tool to use. The 34 may change as there are generally a few races that move each day. I plan on modifying my list daily for the few movements.
- Your comment that the Ds need 15 of the 34 for 218 assumes no movement from the leans and likely categories to the other side. There is far more exposure for Rs to lose.

The D count of 203 is comprised of:
Safe: 173
Likely D 15 - 4 of which are R held
Lean D 15 - 10 of which are R held

The R count of 198 is comprised of:
Safe: 152
Likely R 26 - only 1 of which is D held
Lean R 20 - only 1 of which is D held

Of the 34 toss ups there are 12 open seats (3 of the 4 D held seats and 9 of the 30 R held seats)

Your effort will be very helpful for monitoring the election.

[Kickass Conservative]

I’m in #48, CA.

The Rat Harley Rouda is spending money like it’s water. His commercials make him sound like a Moderate Republican.

Harley Rouda Signs everywhere. They are stealing Dana Rohrabacher Signs as soon as someone puts one up.

Not sure of Dana can survive this one. OC went Hillary against Trump. Very sad to see what “conservative” OC has become.