Do we know out of those 30 current GOP “toss up seats” are located in Red districts or Blue?
I think its by definition, if they are currently held by GOP they are red. I think a more interesting but very difficult for a web sleuth to pull off would be to see which districts went to Trump, and how many of them are being called for Dems now. Frankly I don’t believe the polls, I think there is an element they can no longer measure.
Personally I don’t see that the Dems will get the same voter turnout enthusiasm they had in 2016. And in 2016 HRC got about 2% fewer votes than Obama did in 2012. Meanwhile I gotta think Trump voters have no reason to abandon him, if anything they should be quite pleased with what he has done.
So based on my gut and my reasoning, I think GOP keeps the house and gains big in the Senate. But there is no reason to be complacent. We’re going out to vote on Tuesday even though I live in dark blue waters, there is a chance California governor could go GOP if Dem enthusiasm wanes. And frankly while the media is in hysterics, it is phony hyperbole by a dying media. I think that’s got to translate into a small % of disgust among Dem voters, which means apathy, which means lower turnout. Meanwhile Trump voters are angry at the Dems and pretty much happy with Trump - even some non-Trump GOP voters have got to admire his accomplishments - which imo means relatively higher turnout as compared to Dem turnout. And that’s what it takes for GOP to win, they have about a 4% gap in overall in party affiliation.
I won’t go so far as to say this could be like 2010, but I wouldn’t rule it out resembling 2010. In 2010 the voters came out to stop Obamacare. The Dems had it all in 2008 and blew it by 2010. I just don’t see any reason for Dem enthusiasm, at least nothing that wasn’t there before 2016 - which wasn’t enough then, and thus imo won’t be enough in 2018 either.