Posted on 11/01/2018 8:08:12 AM PDT by mandaladon
Also, notice 45 percent Manchin, 40 percent Morissey, 11 percent BS libertarian and 5 percent undecided equals 101%. Somebody messed up their push poll!
Thank you.
I voted for Morrisey on Saturday. Now we keep campaigning.
“Rusty Hollen”. LOL! Good name for a senior dating website.
Looks to me like there’s a very good chance the libertarian will suck enough votes from the GOPe to hand victory to Manchin.
Is the libertarian party a secret extension of the democrats?
I’m no fan of the GOPe anymore, and I wish there were viable alternatives, but there aren’t.
This libertarian idiot needs to step off. He has no chance of winning, the only role he will play is to sink the GOPe candidate and therefore undermine the Trump agenda.
In West Virginia, where Trump won by a bigger margin than any other state.
Insane. Good going, libertarian idiots.
Correction accepted.
“The libertarian is obviously the spoiler.”
Yes, remember “I’m Ross and You’re The Boss” Perot? That little feckless ferret cost us 8 years of Slick Willie! Third Party Candidates always help out the RATs, and the third party that usually causes the problem is the Lie ber tarians.
I was disappointed with Morrisey too. All this hard work to replace someone who votes with us more than any other dem to replace him with an unknown factor.
Manchin HAD a record of being a Friend of Coal, that is until he became a Friend of Obama & Hellary! After that not so much! You barely heard a squeak out of him during the Zero years as Zero waged war on coal. Manchin’s stand on global warming, who knows? If he was truly a friend of coal he should have been out front and center fighting that fraud.
He will probably be returned to DC because Morrissey is a poor candidate (In spite of winning two state-wide elections!) compared to Manchin. Additionally Morrissey hits a lot of the visceral “dislike” buttons still existing in many blue collar Mountaineers. Born out of state & tried to have a political career in another state before coming to WV. Pharmaceutical lobbyist (so is his wife!) - right now because of the opioid epidemic its fashionable to hate pharmaceutical companies in WV. (Yes he did as AG successfully sue them, but many view the results as not stringent enough!). Until recently maintained a house in NoVa (Wife still has her pharmaceutical lobbying job there!) official reason its because they didn’t want to move an elderly parent (Who has since died!) None of these are good reasons to select Manchin over Morrissey but they are reasons I hear on the street. It is the “cards” Manchin is playing to keep his seat.
Manchin voted against the tax cuts and the repeal of Obamacare. He voted for Schumer to be the leader of the Senate. He votes with the Dems the vast majority of times. Morrisey would be an improvement no matter what.
GOP hasn’t bothered to even take the field for the Senate States in the upper midwest...
Two things are KILLING the GOP in the senate races up here..
1) GOP Messaging is ALL WRONG!.. If your only message is Democrat is bad and pelosi clone.. YOU WILL LOSE EVERY TIME IN THESE STATES.... To win these states you need to give folks a reason to vote for you, not simply call the other guy names.... That is fine to be PART of your message to keep your base motivated, but it WON’T attract 1 person outside of it, and sadly that’s the only message the GOP has bothered to run up here, when they bother to spend any money at all. Its a dog that won’t hunt here... Trump showed you how to win here, and the GOP has just ignored it... PA18 and OH12 were not FLUKES! They are exactly what will happen every time up here when you just run with a message that is nothing more than Democrat is bad...>
2) The GOP never bothered, honestly to take the field up here... They continued on the ROVE nonsensical path of simply dividing up the states, conceding most of them and just fighting for a small number, unlike Trump who fought EVERYWHERE...
Casey would he handily defeated if the GOP would fix its messaging and stop running campaigns up here, like they are down in Alabama and expecting a win... Fix the MEssaging and actually FIGHT for the it and you will win...
The GOP should have EASILY taken 2 seats in the upper midwest this cycle, but instead, didn’t bother to even try.
Libertarian isn’t the problem... Morrisey is just not ready for prime time... Particularly when standing against a Former governor of the state and sitting senator, who has won all his statewide elections by high 60s and 70%.
The only reason Manchin not 20 points up, is because he is still a D. If Morrisey wins it will PURELY be on the anti D anger nationally... not because of anything that Morrisey has done.
I am sure there are some on the wacky left that probably are voting for the lib out of spite, but WV wanted Kavanaugh seated by 70-80% in polling, so the whackadoo left in WV is not a significant amount of the electorate.... WV is a very poor state with a lot of manual labor...they by and large don’t have the luxury to be whackadoo....
Manchin is only hurting because the D party has gone so far off the cliff....
That’s the point I am making...
If Morrisey wins its purely on the momentum of Trump/MAGA, not anything that Morrisey himself has said or done.
And if Manchin goes down, not a SINGLE red state Republican will surive Tuesday, and the GOP will grossly overperform in the house as well
In the same manner that the Green Party is a secret extension of the Republicans.
I am not even talking about his stands... he’s just a POOR retail politician.... Particularly when juxtaposed with Manchin. He is completely out of his depth....
In any other cycle, Manchin would handily be up 20 points, but because of the MAGA/TRUMP momentum, nationally, Morrissy may win, but it won’t have ANYTHING that Morrisey has ever done or said.
Personally I think that the Momentum is that strong, but Manchin is a scrapper, and knows his state and electorate well. And has been in service to his state for 34 years or something with only 1 electoral Loss, and has won his statewide races generally by 60-70% of the vote and is the former governor as well.
He is WITHOUT question the strongest D amount the red state D’s... and he’s certainly up against the WEAKEST R in those races as well..
If Manchin goes down, then no other Red State D Senator up for election will win.. not a one of them... AND the GOP will crush it in the House as well... because that MAGA/TRUMP momentum is the ONLY thing that has Morrisey in this. If he gets carried over the finish line by this momentum, the GOP will handily defend more than enough of the roughly 40 GOP retiring house seats to hold the house...
Don’t blame the libertarian... he’s a non factor, in fact when all is said and done, the libertarian in this race will probably take just as many D as R votes.. because those few D’s and WV who are whacakdoos, will most likely vote LIbertarian in protest over his Kavanaugh Vote.
Time will tell, but I think if Morrisey loses, its purely on him... he’s not really ready for prime time... the only reason he’s in this race is the MAGA/TRUMP momentum is so great.
Too bad about Morrisey. It’s always vital that R’s put up a competent vote-getter candidate against an incumbent Democrat.
What is with these blue states? What is with Florida!? That is the real shocker. WHO is Florida, now days? I don’t get these polls delivering Gillum as being even close.
“And if Manchin goes down, not a SINGLE red state Republican will surive Tuesday”
Democrat?
You must mean Democrat!
What states are you talking about? ND? MI? WI? IN? MN?
1) GOP Messaging is ALL WRONG!.. If your only message is Democrat is bad and pelosi clone.
I don't know how many Reps are using that message vice touting the economy, tax cuts, foreign policy achievements, reductions in regulations, etc. So what should the message be? And what is the Dem message besides Trump is bad?
Casey would he handily defeated if the GOP would fix its messaging and stop running campaigns up here, like they are down in Alabama and expecting a win... Fix the MEssaging and actually FIGHT for the it and you will win...
Messaging is not the end all or be all in elections. You need money, a ground game, etc. to take down an incumbent. In many of the states, the Dems have the infrastructure and a massive lead in voter registration. PA is a tough nut to crack for the GOP when Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can manufacture the votes needed to win. Trump barely won MI, WI, and PA. And he was considered an outsider, not a politician.
I watched VA go from a solid red state to a purple state to a now solid blue state getting bluer every year. Demographics played a large part in much the same way that they have in CA. The Rep base is non-Hispanic whites who are a declining percentage of the electorate. In 1970 they were 89% compared to 63% today and a projected 50% in 2043. By 2019, next year, non-Hispanic whites will be 50% of all the children 18 and under. Each cohort that turns 18 annually will be more Dem than the previous one.
The message of low taxes has no resonance with the 50% of the population that pay no income taxes. 80% of Americans pay more in payroll taxes than they do income taxes. The Dems appeal of Big government and free stuff resonates with an increasingly growing portion of the population. The growing wealth gap and decline of the middle class adds to the Dem narrative of the poor as victims. Reps who espouse entitlement reform are viewed as the enemy. Trump was very shrewd to say that he would not touch SS or Medicare. Unless the Dems join in, it is foolish for the Reps even to discuss it. In the meantime, the entitlement programs are bankrupting the country and will need to reformed sooner rather than later.
So tell me the message that will be the magic wand to convert Dems into Reps.
Except for when Dems employ a Libertarian spoiler to split the pubbie vote.
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