[CatOwner]

Margins of victory in:

PA (20 EVs): 44K
WI (10 EVs): 23K
MI (16 EVs): 11K

Flip those states on less than an 80K vote difference, and Hillary is POTUS.

[jjotto]

Exactly so!

No pollster, even those that WANT to be accurate instead of spin, has error margins that cannot predict such small shifts. But notice that they NEVER admit that.

Polling across House races using a standard methodology isn’t done, so aggregators are forced to merely project, same as any non-pro.

Safest to rely on historical patterns and incumbency. Average mid-term election loss in the House is 23 seats. There are 58 open seats. It is those two facts that cause the projection of Dems retaking the House. Other reasons having anything to do with Trump cited by pros are just smokescreen. Dems need to flip around 24 seats, very doable by historic standards, Trump having nothing to do with it.

But a show of support for Trump of almost any size might be enough to keep the Dems below the historic average seat gains and keep the House in GOP control.

[robowombat]

Yes, I expect Tuesday will be akin to 2016 with very close House election and may pivot on close races in a handful of districts. My guess (worthless) is GOP picks up seats in the Senate and Dems win the House by five seats or thereabouts. This would confirm how divided the nation is as we move towards 2020. The next two years will be like the last only worse. The Dems will turn the House into Animal Hose with all the devils present and the media will be into non stop screaming all the time.the good news is DJT keeps growing in self assurance and competence as Potus and will really be a commanding figure in 2020. The people lining up for the Dem nomination all look like dwarfs beside him. Also the nation is getting used to a President who is not like the procession of gravitas speakers we have had to endure and is a real person in public and private circumstances. DJT is emerging as a personality akin to Andrew Jackson who is a non-insider but who is more than capable of dealing with the political class.

[hinckley buzzard]

Fortunately electoral college doesn’t vote this year. Flipping them makes no sense.