Posted on 11/05/2018 7:49:23 AM PST by SeekAndFind
As I have done every two years for quite some time, here are my predictions for the midterms.
House of Representatives
There are several dozen House races and five Senate races where one candidate or the other has a lead of 2 points or less in the most recent survey. Picking individual winners in these House races is hazardous since there are few public polls of these districts . Another few dozen House seats show a candidate leading by five points or less. The great majority of the close House races are Republican-held seats, hence their vulnerability to Democrats taking over the House, where a net pickup of 23 seats is required.
Most every analyst -- Larry Sabato, Stuart Rothenberg, the Cook Political Report, the Real Clear Politics average, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Cohn in the upshot in the New York Times -- is predicting a pickup for the Democrats of more than the 23 seats needed. Several have increased their range of the likely pickup in the last week to the 30 to 40 seat range.
Polling is becoming more difficult with ever lower response rates to telephone surveys with live callers. . There are sometimes higher response rates to automated surveys, whether by phone or online (though not much higher), and there are issues related to whether such surveys reach a representative sample of likely voters.
Rasmussen, an automated survey, shows Trump with a positive approval score, and most other surveys show him 8-12 or more points net negative. The generic ballot for which party voters prefer control Congress has consistently shown large margins for the Democrats, currently over 7 points on average, though a few surveys have shown smaller margins this week.
The Democrats seem poised for significant gains in the House delegation in Pennsylvania
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I polled my four adult children and their spouses. None of them will talk about supporting republicans to anyone even their closest childhood friends. They want to avoid fights.
As DJT says, ‘if crowds matter.... ‘
I generally keep quiet
Unless I know I’m out of enemy territory st a customer house with
Conservative signs
Ie motorbikes. Guns. Bumper stickers Listening to rush
Libs are just too emotional and stupid to engage
If the Democrats wind up controlling the House by a tiny margin, it will be because of the redistricting by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Gerrymandering is a 200-year-old tradition in America and it’s OK, unless done by Republicans.
Trump 8 to 12 negative? Who the heck are they polling?
One can only vote and pray that they are as wrong as they
were last time!!!
One can only vote and pray that they are as wrong as they
were last time!!!>>>>>>
Have been doing that for a long time now. The last election I remember that was in the bag for the good guys was Reagan vs Mondale.
So here we are again. Election eve and heading into the unknown. Vote with both hands and hope for the best.
The last election was our chance to stop the socialization
of our system, and we did.
I hope republicans and independents across the nation
realize that to give power to the socialists now would
put the very existence of Trump and his administration,
and all the success we have seen in jeopardy.
We would see a President struggling to lead as he fights
off a swarm of investigations and attacks.
It’s not something we can put up with at this time in history.
Now, we need to give Trump the tools to finish the job,
build the wall, stop the mobs.
He doesn’t mention the FRAUD factor. How much will the RATs manage to pull off and will they get away with it?
POST #6....
C’mon over and let’s BBQ and chit/chat.
Where u At ?
My daughter is the same. She lives in an ultra liberal town in CA. and just keeps her mouth shut.
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