I certainly hope that Trump's election proved that you can throw out the old conventional wisdom.
There is one thing I have noted that the Polling groups are not considering.
There was a pretty strong never Trump moment in 2016 amoung traditional GOPE voters. Saw that in a lot of races across the South. The GOP Senate candidate did much better in traditional Red areas then Trump did. The polling groups have built that into their models for 2018. I think the last two years have laid a lot of that Never Trumpism to rest.
We will find out tonight who is right.