Your comments are spot-on. Fairfax County has more than 1 million residents, and it’s bright blue because it’s filled with over-paid federal workers who have every reason to vote Democrat. Republicans can carry every rural county in the state and if the Dims get a majority in the three largest NoVA counties, they still win.
There’s another factor at work here as well, namely court-ordered redistricting that favors the Democrats. When Congressional district lines were redrawn (by federal judges), the 4th went from a relatively safe GOP district to the Democrats; the second district picked up York County on the Tidewater Peninsula, to go along with the eastern shore, and portions of the southside, stretching all the way to Virginia Beach. It made the district more competitive, and sure enough, GOP incumbent Scott Taylor lost yesterday.
Hate to say it, but Virginia is a lost cause; GOP will probably retain a couple of rural Congressional districts, and remain competitive in the General Assembly for a few more years, but rest assured. The next Democrat redistricting will target even more Republicans, and they will revert to minority status in the legislature in the very near future.
I currently live in the Old Dominion, but as soon as I can retire, the wife and I are decamping for Tennessee. The only thing that would help Virginia is a 20-year federal hiring freeze for every department that isn’t DoD. You would need to retire a couple of generations of federal civil servants who live in Loudon and Fairfax County to even make a dent—and pray they move someone else to collect their fat government pensions.
Yeah, WV is my current weekend home state. It’ll someday be my retirement state.
Also, it’s worth noting that Trump only lost to Crooked by 5% which was also GOP-e poster child George Allen’s margin of loss to Tim Kaine in 2012. In 2013, Cuccinelli lost the governor’s race to McAuliffe by 2.5% with zero help from the national party.
They have a zillion excuses for when they get beat, but they’ll project out every which way with their autopsies if a base candidate loses. Cory Stewart caused Barbara Comstock to lose, you see.