Posted on 11/09/2018 6:05:55 AM PST by LS
Yesterday, most of the AZ counties dumped their final ballots. The big one was Pima County (Tucwon) which is Enema territory, and she surged into an 8,000 lead.
What is unclear at this time is whether this is all of Pima or just, as someone suggested, just 1/3. If 1/3, she will finish Pima +20,000.
That seems like terrible news, but Maricopa has 195,000 ballots outstanding. If Enema has a 20,000 lead, McSally will have to break around 55-56% to win. Depending on where the precincts are, that could be impossible or relatively easy:
*If Glendale, central Phoenix, Awatukee, or Tempe are the source of the remaining ballots, it's over and Enema wins.
*If Chandler, Sun Lakes, Sun City, Scottsdale, North Phoenix or Paradise Valley are the locations, McSally should hit her targets.
*Awaiting confirmation but it also "appears" there are still all the overseas military ballots outstanding. AZ is home to Luke AFB in Glendale, Ft. Huachuca Army Base near Sierra Vista, and Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Tucson, so there is a likelihood that a number of military ballots---and I'm totally guessing, perhaps more than 1,000---are yet to be counted. Those would also strongly favor McSally.
*ALL the remaining Maricopa County ballots are "election day" not "early" ballots. This is significant because Richard Baris in his polling AZ found that the later an indie voted, the more likely they were to vote McSally.
I spoke to a top GOP official with close knowledge of the inner workings & numbers. Two days ago they had a powwow with a bunch of number crunchers: he told me half said McSally would win, half said she'd lose. He said the biggest problem (and he didn't add details) was "GOP moderates."
This was shocking to me. In my view, McSally WAS the "moderate" and the heir to McTurd. I figured all the squishes would line up behind her in droves. But this reaffirms my post from yesterday that nationwide, the GOP has a VERY SIGNIFICANT MESSAGE PROBLEM.
They own the issues, but are not at all effectively tying the issues to the "heart"---the key to millennials and the so-called "moderates." It's not that these people don't LIKE our policies. It's that they are not convinced those policies will make them "feel better."
If you look at the 2020 map and how close these races were, it could be horrifying. You might think at this rate even President Trump could be in trouble. But looking at it politically, I think, is wrong. We need to start looking at the map the way Nike or Dow Chemical would look at it. Our marketing MUST change in a way that ties our policies to PERSONAL outcomes, not generic "See how low taxes are better."
When you do this, you can even sell "sacrifice" (i.e., to the blue staters who lost their state deductions in the tax reform bill, but it all has to be done by making these people feel like a) they are improving their PERSONAL situation in a way that MAKES THEM FEEL BETTER about their role in "saving the world."
It can absolutely be done, but Rs can no longer think they can run on judges or a "good economy" and attract that huge "middle."
Of course, its hard to come up with a good message for the electorate when you've spent two years doing almost nothing -- and even failing to accomplish the one legislative item (the repeal of ObamaCare) that you've been promising to do for almost a decade.
“Enema”? Would that be Sinema? A bit childish don’t you think?
LS are you hearing anything about Bondi getting involved in Broward and Palm? I tell ya, if she doesn’t get down there and fix it, I’m never going to support her further into her political career. She needs to arrest Snipes and Gillum yesterday.
I appreciate your updates! Keeping us all somewhat sane.
You don't know the work of LS. He is a master nickname giver. This one fits.
PS Thank you for the hard work. I know how hard it is to run down and aggregate these massive piles of information. You’re doing a fine job sir.
I heard she was with POTUS on election night and she is being considered for AG??????
Thanks, LS.
This is so nerve-wracking.
I wonder what will transpire at the hearing today and also, how can Fontes people call people who turned in a ballot but their signature is in question? I could answer the phone and say I am Maria or Jose or John or Betty, etc. and I’m not.
Are you aware of the law suit filed by four County Recorders against the new County Recorder of Maricopa County — filed Wednesday end-of-day?
Pretty clever, don’t you think?
Gotta ridicule these people at every chance. We are finding that is a major chink in their armor.
No, all I heard on FL is that Broward only has 3500 and those broke down about 60/40 for the lefties, or not nearly enough to overcome a 17k lead by Scott.
I cautiously think we have FL now.
Bondi doesn’t strike me as being tough enough to be AG. I don’t know much about this acting AG Whitaker guy, but at least he fits the bill in appearance. Big, tall, square jaw, physically intimidating. No one is going to push him around. Let’s see if he has the intestinal fortitude to deal with the unrelenting attacks from the Left.
“The GOP has a messaging problem and the GOP needs better candidates.”
Not only does the GOP need better candidates, but the GOP also needs actual candidates. When I heard about so many House races with only a Rat on the ballot, and no GOP at all, I freaked out. I think it was Ryan’s job to recruit House candidates but, of course, he did not. His final act to stick it to Trump, I guess.
He said the biggest problem (and he didn’t add details) was “GOP moderates.”
Sounds like a code word for Never Trump Mormons.
Careful. Ds win the messaging problem even when they do nothing.
THAT’S THE POINT. It doesn’t matter “what” they do if they aren’t messaging properly to tie it to Millenials’ emotions and heart. All the achievements in the world will be meaningless.
We should have seen this with Romney-—someone who did some really great things but who had absolutely no appeal to anyone’s heart or emotions. A roboticon.
But the candidates cannot just be “oh, we got a black, oh we got a Hispanic woman.” Rather, we need to find people like Tester who know exactly how to attract LOCAL voters and keep them loyal, election after election, because he makes them feel like “He cares about people like me.”
..the GOP is going to court today in AZ I read—can’t let this one get stolen...
Lord I hope not. She needs to show some damn chops RIGHT NOW and arrest Gillum and Snipes for the love of Pete. The MUST be consequences for these shenanigans!
I understand Whitaker is a Hatchet Man, but her consideration for AG (were I Trump) would depend HEAVILY on how she handles this election fraud situation in FL. If she knocks it out of the park, put her on the short list.
Wouldn’t that put them into a mandatory recount? Imagine the media circus. AND as we all know, Dems always gain votes during recounts.
Maybe, but at these numbers, it goes way, way beyond that.
If we continue to dismiss these people as “neverTrumpers,” we’re gonna get creamed.
You better figure out what motivates them. Again, it does NOT require changing principles or policies. But id does require a MASSIVE message overhaul.
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