Thanks for your research on this...I was hoping someone would do it. That site has become a joke.
GIGO
Let’s save this for 2020.
Not only that, the polls throughout the course are much, much more biased and they set the talking points for the election. They are used to set a narrative. How many house GOP retired because the polls had the having absolutely no chance. If they didn’t retire the GOP would have kept the house rather easily
Real clear.
Real Clear Politics is an average of many polls. However, they also include polls that have been historically very biased toward democrat candidates. The choice to include historically unreliable polls is a deliberate act of bias by Real Clear Politics.
I always thought the RCP polls are stupid...
The metrics of averaging polls is statically dumb.
RCP is not useless, but you can’t look at the bottom line number. First, it is an average, so an outlier poll or some poll that is intended to persuade voters will skew the result. You use the RCP numbers to track trends, especially among particular polling companies. The RCP results showed the move towards the Republicans after the Kavanaugh hearings. They weren’t worth much as a predictor of the election outcome. The heyday of polls is over, they can’t get an accurate sample anymore.
It does seem odd, doesn’t it, that the polls are all off in the same direction.
A poll will.never have the precise margin of the actual results. However, it strains believability that almost all of them predicted a bigger Democrat vote than actually happened...
All the cheating is not finished on some of those races.
Good post. Thanks for doing the work.
The rat polling bias was VERY effective in the case of Ohio. By maintaining Brown’s lead artificially high throughout the campaign season, they kept anyone from paying any attention to it. If it had been known that Brown only had a single digit lead, the Ohio race would have been one of the tossups being closely watched.
With national attention to the race, I believe Renacci could have erased that 6 point deficit.
Were there any Senate races they were far outside the Margin of Error and failed to predict the winner?
In this day and age I think polling is extremely difficult. The people that they are reaching and agree to talk to them may be more likely to be dems I don’t know. Who the heck answers a landline any more?
Are they purposefully skewing the results. Probably. But there is also the fact that there is no accurate polling method available except the ballot box.
The polls and Vegas turds DID predict the dems would win the House and they were right in that regard.
Obviously the RCP is practically worthless - they use averages of polls which means they use a collection of measures probably taken over of period of maybe two weeks to a month or so - in political time that’s forever and the average probably won’t pick up trends in voter movement to or from a candidate, which can be especially quick in the last several days before election - RCP is a gimmick......
It’s important to remember that Real Clear Politics just aggregates polls that other people take.
I’m glad we have a free public web site where every poll in the country is recorded and displayed.
I have been saying this for a long time.
If you want worthless, OLD, inaccurate polls, RCP is for you
The betting sites are the most accurate.