She can lose only 18.
To hold on, she would need GOP support.
Which CINC has publicly promised her, just to twist the shiv in her leveraged ass.
The fix is in,
She will allow 17 of crazies to vote for another to please their base, but everyone else will fall in line
She may need GOP support? Then she’s not worried.
Can the republicans just vote “present” on this and sit on their hands? I’d kinda prefer to watch the democrats eat themselves like they’re crab legs on a seafood buffet just for the sheer entertainment value. I know the Speaker is the third-in-line but I’m selfish that way (and deniability is a good thing in this situation).
There are 435 seats in the house, so Pelosi needs 218 to win election as speaker.
The latest tally shows 232 House seats for the Dems, 200 fo the Rs, with three undecided. If those three races go according to how they are leaning now, it will be 233 seats for the Dems, 202 for the Rs.
By my count, 233 - 16 = 217
So 16 defectors leaves Pelosi exactly one vote shy of what she needs. That may be signficant if they all are firm. Pelosi could reach out to make a deal with Republicans for a vote or two, but that would probably put her in an untenable position with her own party.
More likely, she makes a deal with a handful of the 16 to give her some margin. But it’s possible that things get interesting in the next week.