Posted on 12/07/2018 1:42:20 AM PST by vannrox
Many people, the opinions of whom I greatly respect, have written on the state of politics and society in the US in such a way as to suggest the possibility of the US moving into a period of similar to what was seen in the former republic of Yugoslavia from the mid 1980’s through to the late 1990’s, referred to by many as Balkanization. I’m certainly in agreement with these bloggers and writers, Matt Bracken being just one example.
The political, sociological, ethnic and racial trajectory in the US is eerily similar to that of the former Yugoslavia in many ways. In the coming years, this could even expand into the sphere of religion, though for now there doesn’t seem to be such widespread religious friction as much as there is racial/ethnic and political.
The similarities begin where Yugoslavia’s end did: With the economy. It’s always the economy. Yugoslavia was totally socialist in their economic model. For you on the left, yes, it was indeed “real” socialism, complete with the never-ending litany of financial Band-Aid’s designed mainly to keep the rigged carnival game going for as long as possible for whomever was sitting at the top getting rich. The US economy may not appear to be socialist in the same way, for whatever reason many Americans maintain the idea of some bastardization of capitalism corrupted by, well, socialists.
Both Yugoslavia and the US endlessly investigated and studied how best to fix the economic woes, and some decent ideas, even some great ideas, were formulated… And then were largely ignored, either due to a lack of will to implement them or a lack of ability. Probably it was lack of political will, since in both country’s cases, the ideas that would have worked best included laundry lists of major money cuts and reductions of federal power. The politicians in power are generally never going to go for a plan like that. They’d rather drive the train straight off the cliff themselves before letting someone else drive it to safety.
The idea so far is that the economic system in the US is simply not sustainable. The Band-Aid of borrowing more money from the US public, China, Japan, etc. and periodically raising the debt ceiling to allow it is not going to work forever, and it doesn’t require one to have any advanced understanding of economics to grasp this. You don’t need to be an expert economist to realize that $20 trillion in debt and hundreds of trillions more in unfunded liabilities is virtually insurmountable at this point. The fact that the US dollar is the currency of the world is not going to shield us from the inevitable forever. The economic problems that Yugoslavia faced in the early 1980’s, and that the US now faces, are like a lit match being held over a barrel of gasoline.
And that leads me to discuss that gasoline.
Yugoslavia had an extremely diverse country racially, ethnically and religiously. The geographic location and the early economic prosperity (or the illusion of it) attracted a lot of people from all sorts of backgrounds. After a while, the government began to show heavy favor toward certain ethnicities at the expense of others. Rigorous controls were put on employment and educational systems, favoring one ethnic group over the other with claims that there was history of abuse that needed to be atoned for. Criminal behavior by members of certain ethnic or racial groups were largely ignored by the media and law enforcement apparatus, while even the most benign actions of other groups were seized upon and used for narrative building.
Does any of this sound familiar? In the US we have a long list of “protected” groups who are favored with advantages in employment, educational and entitlement systems. Race alone is often used by the media and government, often one and the same, to build a narrative of victimization.
In Yugoslavia circa 1980’s, and in the US today, you’d see a very socially diverse people from numerous ethnic, racial, economic and religious backgrounds. When these diverse groups mingle and mix, everyone has to accept that different cultures will have friction arise when the “negative” aspects of a particular culture become unacceptable to another. In times such as those, it’s necessary for the opposing cultures to have the freedom and ability to separate for a peaceful outcome. Problems arise, always, when incompatible cultures are forced to mix in society with no avenue for voluntary separation, and these problems are heavily exacerbated when government and media get involved to force one culture to accept and integrate what they feel are the “negative” aspects of the opposing culture. An obvious and perhaps overly-simplistic example is when white, Christian American citizens are forced to accept and live alongside immigrants who wish to practice Sharia law and alter their own lives and habits in order to accommodate some of these sensitivities. A very basic example, yes, but I think it makes the point.
We are meant to swallow the lie that says “diversity is our strength” without consideration for merit, performance, ability, intelligence or actual results.
This is not meant to be an indictment on any specific culture or ethnicity, but more of a history lesson, a social observation and a dire prediction.
The history lesson is the continued failure of all socialist based economic models, whether we want to consider them “real” socialism or not. The sort of hard socialism seen in 1980’s Yugoslavia and the crony-capitalist soft socialist version seen in the US today are both examples of that failure system. As I stated earlier, it does not take any level of economic expertise to understand that our current system is insolvent and that we have passed the point of no return on a future crash of our financial system. Now that less than half of the people in the US are net-taxpayers and over half of the people in the US are receiving some sort of government assistance simply to survive, we have become a welfare state, with only decreasing numbers of producers with increasing numbers of consumers. Mathematically, it is not sustainable. Historically, it is disastrous.
The social observation is that such a mass of diverse peoples must have a voluntary pressure outlet in order to maintain peace. We must accept reality that not all cultures are able to be forced together with peaceful results. Forced proximity, with advantages, disadvantages and blame doled out to certain peoples, with a lack of opportunity to separate peacefully will always result in strife and eventual violence.
The dire prediction is one that is easy to see coming: An eventual economic failure is the lit match, while the total lack of national cultural identity is the gasoline. The media and governmental apparatchiks stand by to stoke the fires.
We are Yugoslavia circa 1980’s.
My advice? Stay out of Sarajevo.
Correct. If the US had the same standard of living as Yugoslavia in the 1990's or Iraq an Syria in the 2000's, we would have had a civil war along racial lines far more savage than anything that happened in the Balkans or the Middle East. What this proves is that all of the whining about "minority poverty" in the US simply isn't true, because what we're calling poverty is prosperity by much of the world's standards. Even our "poor" have too much to lose materially to throw it all away in armed conflict, apart from those who are career criminals regardless of circumstances.
Don’t agree with the Yugoslavian model. The situation more closely resembles America between the years 1750 to 1770. It’s a battle between the privileged class - the Tories - vs the Americans - patriots. That the privileged class is made up of racial, social and economic favorites is irrelevant. They’re still Tories - embraced and nurtured by the king (the deep state).
California is pretty much their own country living under their own rules now. Look at the mid terms and their election laws and norms. They just literally stole 5-6 elections with their new rules. And no republicans are fighting them about it so what’s to stop them?
They ignore the USA’s sovereignty by ignoring citizenship laws. They’ve been out there trying to do their own ‘global’ trade.
Climate change is now a part of their governmental system.
You beat me to it. Yes it’s here. Canada also.
One already notices this when they cross the border into NY or NJ as they pass into the Northeast.
Legally and culturally the northeast is nothing like the rest of the US. And they have the crustiest bathrooms outside of the eastern bloc.
The people, like those in Europe, balk at the idea of freedom and liberty because also like the Europeans they are born several generations into tyranny and don’t recognize it.
California is also completely separated from the country. While it’s a bit prettier than New England it’s still like going to a different country in the way that you handle yourself, those around you and even the languages spoken.
We remain to comfortable to fight for our rights because we have enough stuff.
I think you’re correct. I don’t think Americans will fight unless they feel that they have something to lose.
Looks like something Harry Turtledove may have come up with in one of alternate history novels.
While it is true that the US is seriously divided, the Balkans is not necessarily the best historical model for what is happening in the US today.
The Balkans have been divided ever since the decline and ultimate crack up of the Ottoman and Austro Hungarian Empires. Before WW1 there were several internecine Balkan Wars based on religious, cultural and ethnic differences. The Yugoslavian state was always divided along these lines before and after WW2.
Unlike Yugoslavia, or the Balkan States, the US is an historic super-power. I would look to other empires for historical comparisons that could shed some light on future scenarios. Break up of USSR or Roman empire perhaps.
We’ve become The United Nations... :(
No, it is already here, if it wouldn’t be for a reasonably good economy we already would have a civil war. Just hope and pray that the economy hangs in there, if it doesn’t all hell will break lose. Some people may think so, but nothing has changed of the old adage ” United we stand, divided we fall” Anyone telling that there is any merit to multi culture is full of crap.
See my tagline.
There are several Serbian families in my neighborhood. One of the young wives is definitely hot.
Unfortunately, parasites always follow their hosts. They will storm the borders of the productive areas.
The only think I know for certain about that map is that it is wrong and dated.
I believe the lines are also way too clear. Cities like Austin, Dallas, Fort Worthless, Salmontonio, Denver, Kansas City, St. Louis would hold out. Parts of Arkansas and Missouri would never allow themselves to be part of that red area and would be given up for swampland.
If it stands alone again it will be a Mexican state.
“Even our ‘poor’ have too much to lose materially to throw it all away in armed conflict,....”
So true. 21st Century America must be the only place on earth, in any time in history, where the homeless own more possessions than they can carry.
Not to mention the only place on Earth where many people living below the official poverty line have a car, a TV, and an iPhone.
Our poorest are the most likely to be obese and are the most entertained poor people ever. These are things that have never happened before. It’s hard to imagine any sort of widespread civil unrest while these conditions exist.
Also, the number of folks who chose not to vote have outnumbered the turnout for any single political party for 100+ years. For midterm, state and local elections both political parties combined are dwarfed by the number of people who choose not to vote. Not that I think it would be better if more voted necessarily. But you would think more would simply deign to vote if they really thought things were so bad before they start splitting up the country.
FReegards
We were actually more "Balkanized" several decades ago. I grew up in the Boston area but most of my family was from Alabama so my father would send me there for the summers to stay with my grandmother.
When you entered the Deep South in the early 1970s, it was a totally different world than the rest of the country. The southern accent was much more pronounced and it was difficult to understand them (and vice versa). Even the little things were different, for example, they would have Dr. Pepper soda everywhere and even to this day, the smell of Dr. Pepper reminds me of the South, even though Dr. Pepper is everywhere now. Most men down there still wore overall and chewed tobacco - things you NEVER saw in the Northeast. I can go on and on.
These days, the South is just about the same as everywhere else. Last time I was down there, I drove the Highway 431 stretch from Boaz to Guntersville and saw the same Walmarts, McDonalds, Applebees, Lowes, Subway, Courtyard Marriotts and Starbucks that I see everywhere else. The only thing left that reminded me of the old days was the Catfish Cabin but even that place looked run down and past its prime.
So I see LESS differences between the regions of this country that I used to. Also, something that most Freepers probably can't relate to, the vast majority of Americans couldn't care less about politics, liberal vs conservative, and what not. They just go about their lives and whoever gets in (office) gets in. They just go about their lives regardless. I know we don't like to hear that but it's true.
Yes, there is something that rings true in what you say. I too lived in Boston, and I too spent years in the Deep South. Of course, I look at the USA from my telescope here in China, and what I see is disturbing.
Yes, the fast food chain and restaurant franchises has changed American culture into a kind of bland-corporate-pop shadow of what it once was. But, if you look closely enough, you can still get fried catfish, and pickled tomatoes in Mississippi. You can still get a Moxie in Milford, MA. You can still hear a think regional accent in Little Rock, AR.
Yest, with the regional differences in culture, there was a unifying theme. We were all Americans. We supported our families. We went to Church. We played football, and we could talk about cars.
Not so much today.
Balkanization is not ONLY about culture. It is about shared identities, histories, and families. Have you tried talking about the Dallas Cowboys with an SA from Honduras? How about talking with an Islamic mother of ten about going to church?
This is serious times brother.
I’m glad that I am on my little lifeboat, way out here. But, sadly, I am watching the USA go up in flames slowly. Soon it will be another Brazil.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.