Agreed, and when Small Cap Growth leads the Market, that is also a warning sign.
So why is this big bleeping news when we had Porkulus and the Bernake Twist to Seniors got screwed and it made no sense to build a Bond Ladder as they sold Gov't debt with no yield and went long at something just north of 2% and screwed future generations up the ying-yang with putting all the debt long term for starters.
It has also predicted a few that didn’t happen.
It will predict correctly eventually, there’s always a recession coming and that’s a good thing.
The alternative is a steady state economy, which is bad all the time.
As booms mature, there is more capital available but less good opportunities as they’ve all been exploited. So too much investment goes into things that aren’t so good, eventually causing a recession. The stock market does a similar dance.