I generally value your opinion.
But in this case, I’m speaking from personal interaction and observation. The French may have the toys, and they do have some hard characters in the Special Forces, but the actual army itself is...well...French. And Algerian. And African (Senegalese, mainly. More Colonials...).
The Germans in the Bundeswehr...they want to be a German army. But are held back. As you said, “As they really should be kept forever”. So I’m talking about the character of the people. They might not be a big force but in a fight, unrestrained...they would be Germans.
The culture of Germany is much different now by design. Obviously an aristocratic woman with 7 children would not have been possible as a defense minister 70 years ago. And the actual soldiers and officers are acutely aware of the way they have to act towards the world. But behind that...they still have the genetics and the history. They might be outnumbered but that would be a minor difficulty to overcome in a straight up fight.
Germany isn’t what they used to be. They would be well-trained, well-equipped and well-led but that doesn’t mean anything because they do not have the collective will to harm a fruit fly.