Welfare policies may have an impact
I think it's unquestionable that it does. You get more of what you subsidize. "Welfare" subsidizes poverty and bastardy. Anyone shocked that we have more of both than we did in the late 1960s when socialist Lyndon Johnson declared 'war' on poverty just isn't paying attention.
I find introducing facts/statistics help inform the discussion. The breakdown of the family is more the cause and welfare the symptom.
It is worth noting that we "subsidize" abortion with the biggest users being blacks and Hispanics. If welfare encourages blacks to have more children, then why are they having per capita more abortions? The black population of this country would be double what it is today without abortion.
58% of all women having abortions are in their 20s.
Black non-Hispanic women have the highest abortion ratio. Black womens abortion ratio has reached 444 abortions per 1,000 live births, while non-Hispanic white womens abortion ratio is 124 abortions per 1,000 live births.
37% of women having abortions are white, 37% are black, 19% are Hispanic, and 7% other races.
According to the Guttmacher Institute, Women who obtain abortions are predominantly poor or low-income, in their 20s and unmarried; black women and Hispanic women continue to be disproportionately represented among abortion patients.