I think Pakistan would go nuclear before India.
If they do, India’s retaliation would be immediate, devastating and spectacular.................
Pakistan has few options in a conflict with India. Not only does Delhi have conventional superiority, it also has a much better logistics base. It’s been reported that Islamabad has only enough “beans and bullets” for a week of full-scale conflict at the conventional level. After that, Pakistan has the choice of losing a conventional war, or escalating into nuclear conflict and losing (but killing millions of Indian civilians in the process, along with millions more of its own citizens).
Did I mention that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is completely controlled by the military? The generals could decide its time to go nuclear and the political leadership might (or might not) have any advance notice.
Meanwhile, civilians on both sides are cheering on reports of losses/casualties among their enemy. It’s like 1914 all over again—with nukes.
Its not India/Pakistan I worry about. Its a nuclear war that spreads out of the thirds world into civilization.