You’re right. This pattern of behavior is SOP for NK. They’ll make some noise, launch a few SRBMs, maybe even a MRBM or IRBM. If they’re really pushing they’ll loft one over Japan and they’ll conduct another nuclear test. Although you have to wonder just how much weapons grade material they have and how much inventory they can squander on showmanship. Then again, that may be the primary purpose of their nuclear program - not so much to ever actually use it, but more as big fireworks to be brought out and detonated as negotiating tools.
Right now they will rattle on purpose, maybe go through some theatrics. They know they are on “candid camera” 24/7 so to speak so will move purposefully in that regard. But if they don’t get the response they want from the tantrum, then they will probably move towards an actual launch. The ball is kind of in our court now because this pattern is SO predictable you know precisely what they will do next and so forth. It almost seems like there is a manual of intimidation they use, written by Kim Il Sung and updated versions by Kim Jong il and Fat Boy. I’m pretty tired of it by now they’ve gotten away with this for far too long.