I am not a nuclear engineer or anything. But logically, nuclear war is a non-winner in just about ANY scenario.
China is not going to start a nuclear war. They have billions of mouths to feed and even if they won they would have millions of 25-35 year old males who would be hungry in short order. 25-35 year old males without women is bad enough—without food would be intolerable.
Russia does not have the economic power to field a large army. If they shot off nukes, they would need a large army. They are not going to go toe to toe with NATO when they are a medium sized economic power. It just isn’t going to happen.
The Paks and Indians right now are the hot spot. Neither of them want to be annihilated either. Iran and Israel are a concern as well. I could see Israel nuking Iran, but they know Russia would be down their throat in a second.
So, all of the sabre rattling around the internet sounds scary and all—but there is no reasonable person who would set off nukes these days. Plenty of room for a cruise missile here and there, but not nukes.
Set one off over the middle of China, Europe, Russia, India, and the U.S. and the UN would accomplish much of their population control agenda within a year or less without any long-term effects on the rest of the planet. Perhaps why the elites love New Zealand and Paraguay...
“...no reasonable person who would set off nukes these days...”
The NORKS, Pakis and Iranians don’t quite fit that category. Nor does a rogue muslim (SPIT!) group who somehow grabs a nuke and launches.
Deterrence in the mind of your adversary is what matters.
If HE thinks he has an advantage, any advantage, then it not only opens the possibility of a miscalculation in what he may be able to do, but it raises the danger in tense international situations. If the USSR had our advantage we did during the Cuban Missile Crisis it is not certain they wouldn’t have taken advantage of it with a first strike. Their history (being much more brutal to people, domestic and foreign) culture and values are not ours.
Also, ANY advantage, useful or not can affect and encourage the bad behavior of belligerent states.