“I doubt it is Saudi, they gain by the embargo on Iranian oil. “
A war with Iran would spike oil even more than an embargo.
Maybe, assuming Saudi does not get hit in the war. Biggest fear during first Gulf War was saboteurs hitting oil fields. War holds a big risk with possibility of dismissed returns. Embargo provides a steady income. Also Iranians are very good at mining the Gulf they could delay for an extended period the movement of oil through the Gulf