While I cautiously optimistic, I question if the reduction in June is also seasonally related.
It gets much hotter at all border locations in June, so fewer people attempt to cross.
Wouldn’t the proper analysis be to compare seasonality of past years and see if this May-to-June decline is a typical seasonal decline.
“I question if the reduction in June is also seasonally related.”
Seasonally adjusted, it was a 12% reduction.
The Mexicans will be assessed (subject to penalty) at three and six months. Six months is the major assessment, the three month is more for course correction, if results are not on track.
In addition to getting fewer arrivals, the “Wait in Mexico” policy (also part of the agreement) has expanded a bit more as well, to additional Ports of Entry in Texas (it started in San Diego - local teams need to organize and train with the court before implementing). Under that policy, non-Mexicans applying for asylum can be processed, given a court date a few months later, and sent back the same day they came, to wait in Mexico. So far, the total has been around 16 or 18 thousand returned since it started in January, in a growing trend.
Normally I would agree with you. It is expected for numbers of illegals to decline when temperatures go up. That holds true for the illegals that travel through the desert areas.
The “asylum” seekers are different though, they are bused to the border in air conditioned buses and flown to the border in airplanes, also air conditioned. In spite of what the media wants us to believe, these large groups of illegals are not walking here.
Due to that I am not sure the heat is making such a difference this year. There was no decline in my area until Mexico started gathering up illegals before they got here. That made a difference from one day to the next.