One day of an inversion is not a recession indicator. Give it two weeks or a month, and then it will be indicative.
Plus...the stock market is NOT the economy.
It’s time to start talking down the economy. The powers that be want to blame something on Trump. Get people despairing and ready for a change.
What color did it turn when BHO was in office?
If the event signaled by this indicator sometimes occurred TWO YEARS LATER, then is it really an indicator at all? That's eight quarters worth of GDP figures there.
If I bet on one NFL game every week next season, nobody is going to call me a football expert if it takes me up to eight weeks to win a single bet.
With energy prices low and taxes down I’m still feeling pretty optimistic.
I bet all the liberal pundits are giddy.
My guy at Fidelity told me last year that they are planning on a recession in 2020. Planning? I asked. Yeah, it’s inevitable, is what I was told. Hmm, election, is what I thought.
I think everything is going to be O.K. If markets and economics could be predicted there would be a shortage of 100 foot yachts.
They’re trained that there MUST always be a recession after a decent growth period. What they’re not trained in is the effect of external political develops on creating recessions. Consider:
1a) Early 1970s - Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Civil Rights Act (a bit earlier, but kicking in), Arab Oil Embargo
1b) Mid to late 1970s - Economy crashes
2a) Early 1980s - Reagan-style Deregulation
2b) Mid 1980s - Economy grows like mad
3a) Early 1990 - Kinder, Gentler, America results in massively expensive updates to the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, the Wheelchair Act, and more Civil Rights stuff
3b) 1992 - Worst economy in the last 50 years (not quite that bad, but yes, a recession)
3c) Mid 1990s - Economy left alone - grows strongly
...so now:
Late 2010’s: Massive deregulation and other pro-business policies
2020: Take a guess.
Oh it’s going south there is way too much junk food in the lunch room at work for the engineers. It gets like this before a big crash. At least the last two times
The recession is not scheduled for another 6 to 8 months to be ripe for the election. These things require careful planning - - George S.
As they say, the yield curve inversion has predicted 11 of the last 6 recessions.
Trade wars are good and easy to win.
I’m not an economics expert by any means, but I do know something about algorithms. Algorithms, like those used by Google, the Global Warming alarmists and others, can be developed to deliver intended outcomes. In the case of the two aforementioned examples, they do so very, very well.
An inverted yield curve means the Federal Reserve has manipulated short term rates way above what the market would charge.
For an animation of the manipulation go here:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php
Amazingly, many FReepers support such manipulation by the Ivy League elites and are against the market.
I remember my brother, back in the early 80’s telling me that Reagan was going to die in office because every president elected in a year ending in zero died in office.
Except he didn’t. The sampling was too low making the “empirical” data really anecdotal.
I’m not saying this will not happen, but that “always being right” regarding something that doesn’t happen is really only anecdotal.
I’ve been at a roulette table where black came up 27 times in a row. But the 28th time you would have lost if you bet on black.
Has anyone considered that when this thing goes red everyone reacts to that causing the outcome that makes it correct? What would happen if it was just ignored? Black tape over the red light and it is still running fine...
Not if it is artificially negative. The economy hasn’t made it negative. The Fed did. The rush to safety by foreigners hasn’t helped the situation. The economy needs more money for growth. Time to open up the spicket.
Oh shut up!
Tell the UN to lambast China for its aggressive stance towards the people of Hong Kong! China is violating human rights!