Recession by Someday: Say it Loud and Often Enough and it will happen

Lies beget other lies, and with them come anger and division. That's what has been happening ever since Donald Trump was elected: false witness against the president. The latest is the charge that Trump's policies will bring economic ruin to the country. He's setting us up for economic Armageddon worse than the Great Depression and all that preceded and followed it. Hard to believe that one man could cause such havoc, but that's the Left's contention.

There was talk during the 2016 campaign of an economic meltdown should Trump be elected, but we can dismiss that as political chatter. The really nasty stuff came after Trump entered office. Even well respected economists such as Yale's Robert Schiller seemed to join in. Schiller told CNBC in March that there was a "greater than average chance of a recession in the next eighteen months." That would put the recession just ahead of the 2020 presidential election. How convenient.

To his credit, Professor Schiller is more circumspect than most economic commentators on the Left. Everyone from Joseph Stiglitz in the New York Times to Shane Croucher at Newsweek and Joe Scarborough at MSNBC has been breathlessly awaiting a recession, fearful at the same time that it won't happen in time. Croucher quoted two bearish economists, one of whom predicted a 40% chance of recession in 2020, before turning to Janet Yellen, former chair of the Federal Reserve, who concluded that "the odds have clearly risen" for a recession, though one may not be imminent. Don't get your hopes up, Newsweek.

On Aug. 19, MSNBC's Morning Joe reported that "signs of a possible recession" were worrying the president (adding the non sequitur that "some of the things the president has said are racist").

There was this elderly man who had a profitable little business selling hot dogs on a busy street corner in a major city. He wasn’t particularly well educated, but he sold great hot dogs and his customers loved him.

During the early morning rush hour, he’d wheel his mobile hot dog stand to position it near the exit of the central railway station in town. A year ago he’d added a bacon and egg roll to his range and sold scores of them to this breakfast crowd every day. At lunchtime, he’d move his stand to a popular park where he had lines of regulars.

In the afternoon he’d be back at the station entrance and then later most nights he knew a great spot near a nightclub where patrons rushed him off his feet. He had even installed special lighting and a flashing neon sign. Even people driving by would stop.

He’d worked hard for years and done well enough to put his only son through university who later became a management consultant with a large firm.

One day his son warned him that a recession was on the way. The old man asked his son what this meant. Being an educated man his son gave a very detailed explanation of how the recession would severely impact every person in the community, particularly small business people like his father. There would be enormous unemployment; people would not be able to afford to spend money as they did now. He painted a gloomy picture of the future and warned his father that it would be wise to cut back on his expenses and “tighten his belt” financially and prepare for the worst. The old man didn’t know much about the economy or interest rates, but he trusted his son. After all, he was an educated man. Recession mentality kicked in …

The old man began to cut back on the quantity of sausages and bread rolls he bought. He didn’t want to get caught with stale rolls as business began to drop off. But it was hard to judge and some days he actually ran out of sausages and rolls earlier than he normally would. So he went home early and spent more time worrying about this recession that was coming.

Soon he knew that what his son had said was right. He noticed that his takings were indeed falling. This depressed him more and so he tended to get out of bed later each day. After all, why get to the station so early when obviously more people would be eating at home rather than spending money on breakfast in the city. He decided that his bacon and egg rolls were too expensive for most people now. After all, they were twice the price of a hot dog, so he cut them from his menu and his sales continued to plummet.

Wow, his son was right, this recession was hitting hard!

He decided to save more money and not replace the batteries that powered his neon sign and lights at night. Now because he was in the dark, fewer people bought from him and soon he decided that it wasn’t even worth his time setting up at night. Eventually he decided to sell off his equipment and his trolley. He was in luck though because the woman who bought his trolley didn’t seem to know how bad business was, or how severe the recession was going to be. He managed to unload the trolley for more than he thought he would get. Now day after day he stayed at home, depressed, and occasionally ~his son would ‘visit him and they would discuss how bad the recession was, and how lucky the old man had been to have an educated son who had warned him in advance about this terrible recession.

So what’s the moral of this story?

Recession mentality starts in one’s own head. If you believe that a recession is coming and that times will soon be tough, then they will be for you. Like the old man in the story, you’ll start to change your successful behavior patterns and replace them with less resourceful habits. You’ll sleep in later. You’ll take longer lunch breaks, make fewer phone calls, generate less e-mail, and go home earlier.

But it needn’t be that way …

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