Posted on 08/26/2019 6:27:03 AM PDT by KC Burke
“We should try that here in the States.”
What, and go back to archaic and dilapidated Constitutionally limited government? Oh, perish the thought! </SARC>
Boris is the first UK Prime Minister with balls since Thatcher.
EQ - do note that Boris can’t “give NI back to Ireland” - essentially there needs to be a vote for the people of NI to decide. It will need to have a minimum threshold of % of electorate voting and % of electorate voting to join the republic (say 40%)
Indications are that this would happen - even among Unionists or Protestants (there are Protestants who are Republicans) the mood is anti-Westminster since the beginning of the Brexit fiasco.
But out of the districts of NI, still there are some in the north-east who don’t want to join the Republic. So it’s not a simple question of “giving back”.
you say “just leave”
But “just leave” is either
1. BoJo raises a bill in parliament to leave before October 31. Going by the mood in parliament, this will be struck down and a vote of no-confidence called and a general election to follow.
2. Delay until October 31. This is plausible but parliament could raise a bill to prevent this or force #1.
From the UK internal point of view there is no other means
#1 Can you outline how the other countries “didn’t negotiate in good faith”? The UK got to meet it’s red lines while respecting the Good Friday agreement that the UK signed with the Republic in 1997
#2 Yes, 2 years is the deadline - March 31, 2019. The UK begged twice to extend this. The ball’s in their court.
#1 Regarding Nord Stream 2 - I agree with you that it is concerning that Germany wants to bypass Ukraine and Poland to get CNG directly from Russia. Poland and Estonia objected to the pipeline and the route had to be replanned away from their coastal waters. The pipeline doesn’t violate EU guidelines though, so bringing it to the ECJ or the EC doesn’t work - it needs political pressure at an individual country level to bear on Germany.
The entire nord stream 2 is a sign of individual country’s independence to do what they like when there is no clear guidelines in the club.
I, personally, am torn - one the one hand I think that it is a loss of power to Ukraine and Poland as well as opening up the Russo-German relationship, but on the other hand if the EC gets more power to object to one country’s business decision, they may kill Poland’s attempts at fracking.
As to your point that Germany get’s away with it, while others don’t - I disagree about the latter - Poland for instance was categorical that it isn’t giving up coal for now no matter the political pressure.
#2 To your point of ‘the eu intends to keep the UK entangled’ - that does not reflect the ground realities. The EU might have wanted to do so before November 2018, but since then, the cost of keeping the UK in the EU is far, far more than letting them go away, even in a no-deal scenario. Face facts - the different eu leaders see a drama queen occupying time and effort (and money) and objecting to everything. It’s not worth it.
The mood in all the countries’ capitals among the leaders is “go. we don’t want to be blamed for kicking you out, so don’t ask for an extension”
the mood among the people until March was sympathetic, but now it’s just irritated - this is a never-ending soap-opera that people want over.
I would really suggest taking a trip from Florida to see the mood is basically “sad to see you go, but please make up your mind and don’t linger in the threshold while screaming”
well, Yes Minister said it best “the Germans joined the EC to get re-admittance to the human race” :)
that was quite definitely their initial need to join the EC.
But another point to note is that, with the exception of 1933-1945, Germany has always been decentralized. Even today the individual Landen (states) like Bavaria have more independence than many American states.
This seems a German tendency for decentralization - witness the Old Swiss Confederation.
France and the UK in contrast were heavily, heavily centralized states, with even local matters being decided in Paris and London.
Germany see’s the EU as a wider Swiss confederation but looser.
They probably do need a general election. There is however another path out. Just make themselves enough of s PITA to the Yurps that somebody within the EU does not agree to another extension. Voila! They’d be out without Parliament doing anything.
Has the United Kingdom notified the EU formally meeting the condition of Paragraph 2, and if so, on what date?
Cronos, thank you for your reply. It was informative and easily understandable. Again, appreciate the education.
no worries - we learn from each other every day
If a vote were held, like the original vote where 26 counties voted for Ireland and 6 counties voted for the United Kingdom, 3 or 4 counties would join Ireland, and 2 or 3 counties would remain in the United Kingdom.
To stop an article 50 Brexit, Parliament would have to explicitly vote to revoke Article 50. If that happened, a general election would follow, and both Labour and The Conservatives would be destroyed and replaced by the Liberal Demonrats and the Brexit Party. And the Brexit Party would run the country with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives want that result, so it will not happen.
Why are you asking?
the UK formally notified the rest of the EU (note: the UK is still part of the EU, it has a veto vote in EC and has a commissioner in the European commission) on March 31, 2017.
That’s why the deadline was given for concluding the withdrawal agreement on March 31,2019
Your post #25 laid out the precise formula from the founding EU Treaty and I am curious now that Cronos has been kind enough to offer that March 31, 2017 is that date, has paragraph 3 been followed. Did PM May have an both houses and the sovereign issue a formal extension request? and was it agreed to by all EU members as required?
#2 already a PITA.
But the problem is that the other countries will reluctantly agree if the UK asks for an extension - because they don't want to be blamed, like Boris is trying to do
The blame for the UK crashing out is to rest solely on the Tory party
If the UK begs for another extension, the rest of the EU may at most say "ok, but what guarantees are you giving" and even if the UK says nothing, they will still give the extension.
The ball is completely in the UK's court
“... “the Germans joined the EC to get re-admittance to the human race” :)...”
Right, but that is ancient history -
So the 27 countries' leaders did agree to the extension.
Brexit: Theresa May's extension statement in full from 2 April 2019
"I've just come from chairing seven hours of Cabinet meetings focused on finding a route out of the current impasse, one that will deliver the Brexit the British people voted for and allow us to move on and begin bringing our divided country back together.I don't actually see anywhere and don't recall reading anywhere where she got a vote from the parliament for the extension, but I may have missed it."I know there are some who are so fed up with delay and endless arguments that they would like to leave with no deal next week. I've always been clear that we could make a success of no deal in the long term.
"But leaving with a deal is the best solution. So we will need a further extension of Article 50, one that is as short as possible and which ends when we pass a deal.
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