Thanks, this topic will return to focus, next month.
I am all for raising tariffs much higher.
Really do not understand, why we are waiting.
“do not understand, why we are waiting.”
Some things will break, if the moves are too massive and sudden (like stock markets, exchange rates, product and component shortages, inflation, bankruptcies). It is a measured and managed transition - but very rapid by historical standards.
“do not understand, why we are waiting.”
I anticipate that the tariffs will go up again. They may shift the schedule a bit due to current conditions (economic and political), but it seems to me that there is an underlying steady quarterly rollout, that would get us to about 25% across the board in January, all other things remaining equal.
A big wild card in my book however, is if the Chinese currency starts to depreciate significantly. That is when I could see the tariffs adjusting quickly to offset the change in exchange rates, to get into the 50-100% range.
In that scenario, China’s foreign reserves might hit the skids, and a real serious meltdown could happen there. Such a meltdown in China would be a big drag on Global demand, which might be something for which planners would want to carefully consider the timing.