This deal should get the backing of most of the Tory MPs with some Labour folks. And if Boris gives Scotland an independence referendum, he'll get the SNP to back it.
This would result in a deal by Oct 31 wherein NI remains in the EU customs union while rUK leaves the EU and the EU customs union (until Scotland rejoins).
This could be a grand victory for Boris and lead to his re-election
Farage has been worried about a late Boris collapse for some time now. And leaving part of the UK in the EU customs union is not Brexit.
No deal Brexit is better than caving to the EU in the 23rd hour.
NI needs to pee or get off the pot. They are part of the UK or they are part of Ireland. They don’t have standing to design the UK’s ever-after enslavement in the EU.
And Nigel with some wisdom: https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1183659775961288704
Also, there is of course a world of difference between voting their preference in the Brexit referendum and voting to leave the UK.
Putting Northern Ireland outside the GB single market and customs union and single market whilst nominally still part of the UK is probably the best way forward, with the caveate that this must gain and retain the consent of the people of Northern Ireland, regardless of DUP objections. Doing this against the explicit consent of the Northern Irish people WOULD be a violation of the good friday agreement.
I suggest partial tariff equalization on the goods most likely to duck Irish Republic tariffs:
EU-wide tariff rates shall be levied by the UK on tires not for motor vehicle manufacture and on furniture, rugs, major purchase home appliances, alcoholic beverages above 6% alcohol content, tobacco products, electrical/plumbing fixtures and consumer photo/electronic goods designated by the EU Parliament at least 50 days beforehand. Goods having major tangible value-added content from countries created from former colonial possessions of Great Britain may be exempted by the UK, except when destined for any part of Ireland.
The Irish should be asked to identify the HMRC TARIC tariff codes of the items that they think are likely to avoid Irish Republic tariffs. The EU Parliament would be the final arbiter.
No sane Irish politician would dare spend tens of millions of Euros annually on border security to avoid a tariff loss far less than one million Euros.
It would be possible to partially or even fully rebate equalized UK tariffs via UK income tax credits to many UK income tax filers. A Brit might have to input their personal HMRC tariff rebate code when say buying EU Parliament specified equalized tariff items online.
I suggest, given Irish phytosanitary concerns:
Irish Republic general law and all appropriate IR/UK/EU emergency regulations proclaimed in English shall apply in Northern Ireland in purely technical agricultural matters (prior to the retail store/industrial level), until the first day of January at least 90 days after the legislature of Northern Ireland legislates otherwise.
The farmers of Northern Ireland and the government will play along as long as the Irish Republic and EU are reasonable because the farmers don’t want to solely have to deal with UK supermarket chains. The EU and Irish Republic will understand that they must be reasonable to avoid NI legislative pullout.
I read that Irish Republic tariff revenue is around 350 million Euros annually.
I believe that in the UK duty on cars is paid when the car is registered and that’s probably the case in the Irish Republic too.
Dubliners aren’t going to spend 20 Euros on gasoline and drive to Northern Ireland and back merely to save two pounds on low-priced tariffed goods.
Irish corporate tax shenanigans have undermined the corporate tax systems of the Western World. The Irish have lots of gall to make a fuss over tariff equalization.