[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the weekly The Economist/YouGov poll of 1,500 Adults generic ballot question.

A poll of "adults" is not my favorite, but this is weekly and the movements are interesting to note.

For this question, the demographic is D+12:

• Party
  • Dem: 37%
  • Ind: 38%
  • Rep: 25%
• Race
  • White: 69%
  • Black: 13%
  • Hispanic: 12%
  • Other: 6%

52. Generic Presidential Vote
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?

	Dem %	Ind %	Rep %	White %	Black %	Hispanic %	Other %
The Democratic Party candidate	87	24	6	38	64	48	26
Donald Trump	4	30	85	42	14	21	32
It depends	4	19	6	9	9	15	19
I would not vote	5	27	2	11	13	17	24

Now, here is the same question from one month ago:

For this question, the demographic is D+10:

• Party
  • Dem: 35%
  • Ind: 40%
  • Rep: 25%
• Race
  • White: 69%
  • Black: 13%
  • Hispanic: 11%
  • Other: 6%

33. Generic Presidential Vote
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?

	Dem %	Ind %	Rep %	White %	Black %	Hispanic %	Other %
The Democratic Party candidate	83	29	6	37	59	39	41
Donald Trump	6	29	84	42	9	26	37
It depends	7	16	7	10	14	13	11
I would not vote	4	26	3	11	17	21	11

Bottom Line

1. Independent support for the generic Democrat candidate fell -5% in the past month.
2. Independent support for President Trump grew +1% in the past month, giving Trump a net +6% lead over the generic Democrat (was tied).
3. Black support for Trump grew +5% in the past month, moving mostly from the "undecideds" and "stay home" voter.
4. Hispanic support for Trump fell by -5%, moving with "stay home" voters towards the Democrats.
5. Asian+ support for Trump fell by -5%, but the Democrats fell by -15%, moving to the "stay home" group.

-PJ

[LS]

Thanks. Tweeted this & credited you.

So, here’s how I look at it, D+12/adults crap notwithstanding:

If you say Trump gets just half of the “it depends” blacks, he’s at 19%. Then you have 13% “will not vote” which = 1/2 vote for Trump, as we assume blacks will always vote D. That is right in keeping with the 16-26% numbers we’ve seen for a year, and means DemoKKKrats are toast in NC, FL, PA, probably MI and likely VA.

These ares shocking #s for Ds.