Posted on 10/23/2019 7:35:53 PM PDT by Cronos
What are the latest Brexit odds?
There are all sorts of odds out there on whether Britain will seal a deal or not.
Below is just a handful if you're thinking of putting a bet on:
UK to leave by October 31, 2019: 33/1 (Betfair) A second in/out EU referendum to take place before 2020: 20/1 (Betfair) No Deal Brexit in 2019: 8/1 (Betfair) Article 50 to be revoked: 7/2 (Betfair)
The bookies think there will be a general election held in the UK before Christmas Day.
Paddy Power is offering odds of 5/6 that one will take place before December 25.
Those odds have been slashed from 8/1 following Theresa May's resignation.
But a general election being called this week looks unlikely with odds of 4/1.
Currently the Tories are evens on securing a majority in the Commons, with Labour on 12/1.
(Excerpt) Read more at thesun.co.uk ...
8/1 -- for No-deal 7/2 -- for Brexit cancellation
The show's not over yet, folks...
If they can somehow escape, the Brits need to flood the Chunnel.on the way out.
If Boris has his way, yes.
macron inconsistent with prevailing deep state; therefore kabuki?
Should have exited at the time of the election.
They have more wusses the the republican party.
At the time of which election?
The entire deep state is a conspiracy theory on par with “man didn’t land on the moon”
Macron reflects French thought about the UK in the EU - right from the 1950s it has been “Non. We do not want the English in the EU”
This is because France wanted to dominate the EU — after WWII, Germany just wanted to rehabilitate itself. France still wishes to dominate the EU, which is why it
1. rejected the British requests to join the EU TWICE in the 1960s
2. rejected the British move to bring in former Warsaw pact countries in 2004
3. implemented strictly the EU policies that the new countries people could not move for the first 3 years unless the host countries allowed (which the UK, Sweden and did)
France looks forward to Brexit as:
1. it will mean a far, far diminished UK - France’s economy has already gone beyond the British in 2018 after years of trying catch-up
2. it will mean that France gets more “weight” in the EU to push it’s national interests — it will be opposed by Germany, Poland, etc., but the latter, business-friendly countries used to county on Britain for added “weight”
3. it hopes that with the UK imploding, it will finally win the fratricidal war that’s been there ever since a French Duke conquered England.
Germany on the other hand looked at the UK as an ally against France for business-friendly deals. It was genuinely sad to see them go.
Remember that the UK was essentially a German-family ruled state right from the “glorious revolution” of 1688 when the Dutch king basically conquered England, right down to good queen Bess Saxe-Coburg-Gotha-Battenberg.
Macron has consistently been “we want the Brits out. Good riddance”
Merkel is a tricky one - she “rules” by basically polling the voter base for what works. No ideology at all. Germans were in favor of giving the Brits a good deal until November came along. Since then the mood and especially now the mood in Germany is “get it over with”.
Macron may prevail - but I think Morawiecki and Orban may come in favor of letting the British have more time extension as that will give these two countries citizens more time to rethink and return home (both the countries have negative unemployment in highly skilled industries)
hmmm, lots of interesting input to think about. thanks!!
that is what, a 15 day extension?
it sounds from a distance like such a short amount of time, especially given all the (at times alleged by some) UK footdragging. why then even bother with the paperwork for only 15 more days? a detailed study to determine whether it would be worthwhile might reasonably take 30 days (lol).
just wondering out loud, not necessarily criticizing...
one more point to note is that the bill for leaving (meaning the remaining work + Farage’s EU retirement pension) is reducing at the rate of over 1 billion per month. This is money the UK would be paying in any case, deal, no-deal whatever (as it is basically pre-agreed by the UK as its dues).
So Boris if he delays to January 31 can say that he brought the bill down to 27 or even 25 billion. A great election plank
The 15 Nov is Macron’s statement. He’ll still need to justify it to Varadkar, Merkel, Morawiecki etc.
France, Belgium and Spain are pretty gung-ho about the UK leaving with no deal (as they could benefit) and will push it. Ireland, the Netherlands and Germany and Poland will be hurt and would prefer a deal so will be nice to the Brits.
Macron basically wants to get the Brits out. So he’s giving a pithy 15 days - his words are to be interpreted as “you’re not really getting any time. Approve Boris’ deal or get out now, les Anglais”
Le Monde will portray it as the plucky Gaulish victory over perfidious Albion.
Der Spiegl will portray it as a loss for business and a fear for French domination.
Rzeczpospolita will portray it as a sad loss of an ally and business partner for central europe. But it will also have:
hopes for the Polish professionals who went to the UK to come back and maybe, just maybe, bring back jobs and GDP with them.
I wonder if Spygate plays into the timing at all...
hmm... why?
If the UK Brexits and inks some YUGEly awesome trade deals with the Trump and the US before proof of the UK’s and the EU’s complicity in Spygate becomes public, then I think it’s gonna seriously suck to the new EU.
Note to the UK: Brexit faster, folks. Our prez will likely be far more forgiving than the American public. Get those deals inked STAT.
1. What is the complicity of the UK in spygate?
2. when is that inquiry coming out?
Neither of those questions have been answered yet.
But if I were the UK, I wouldn’t wait.
Hence my gentle suggestion to Brexit faster. :-)
https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-largest-economies-in-the-world actually France is the 7th largest economy, behind India and the UK which is 5th. France is beset by social unrest, not that youd know it from the media silence on the constant riots and demonstration in Paris over the past couple of years.
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