[Zhang Fei]

Arthur Waldron, like Michael Pillsbury, are two sinologists not in thrall to the Communists ruling the roost China. I don't always agree with his assessments, but his arguments are always thought-provoking.

[metmom]

So are we.

Hopefully President Trump will get re-elected for another term.

[Lurkinanloomin]

I hope he is right.

Communism is bad.

[mrsmith]

Bah.
Feudal systems, like China has, don’t fall until everything falls with them.

[devane617]

no it’s not

[Candor7]

Ping!

So much winning!

[Candor7]

Ping!

So much winning!

[Lysandru]

I remember reading a book in 1987 that claimed that the Castro Regime was heading for imminent collapse. Over 3 decades later, I am still waiting.

However, this story quotes a sinologist who claims secondary access to the thinking of a CCP Politburo member. I also think that anyone who wants to ban portrayals of Winnie the Pooh because they are subversive is not confident about their hold on power.

[Robert DeLong]

the solution is to become a partner with the West, not an adversary seeking world domination for evil ends.

[ryderann]

I doubt these folks will go softly into the night.

[proxy_user]

I’m sure the rulers are thoroughly familiar with both the Boxer Rebellion and the Taiping Rebellion - that’s why Hong Kong scares them.

[Unam Sanctam]

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[hinckley buzzard]

The Party controls the Army and the Army has all the guns. The Party has greater surveillance and control of civilians than the Nazi Party ever dreamed of having. But the Gestapo had the whole nation under its thumb.

I don’t see where China has any reason to disintegrate, although it may have some turmoil around succession if Xi is forced from office.

[samadams2000]

What happens when 1 billion people try to run through the eye of a needle? It’s not pretty.

[SeekAndFind]

It’s not as if we haven’t heard this “Chicoms are doomed” predictions before from so-called expert China observers.

One of the most notoriously wrong “expert” is Gordon Chang who actually lived in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

He predicted a collapse of the Chinese economy as far back as 2004. He even wrote a book entitled, THE COMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA.

Didn’t happen. Yet, here we are in 2019, Gordon Chang is still being given column space in our newspapers and even airtime by Fox, and he’s still predicting a collapse! How many times should a man cry wolf before we ignore him?

[youngidiot]

They’ll invade Taiwan

[Blurb2350]

Wow, just think if Chinese communism were to collapse under Pres. Trump just as Soviet communism collapsed under Pres. Reagan! But, alas, it’s highly unlikely . . . The wicked Democrat Party wouldn’t allow it.

[Mariner]

He correctly identifies China as the Nazis of our day.

[Chewbarkah]

The Man with the Gold makes the Rules, i.e., in the long run, economics triumphs over politics, even if the two influence each other. As China diversifies wealth and economic resources into many hands, and thus many power-centers, inevitably a central authority cannot maintain control over politics. When and how the CCP collapses is the real question.

The Chinese people, including especially those who hold substantial wealth, have historical reasons to fear the chaos that would ensue without the CCP anchoring the system, even of that anchor is a millstone dragging them down. Uncertainty about what would follow (national disintegration?; back to warlords and constant civil war with foreign powers intervening?; how would economic structures and institutions work?; would a Chinese model of self-government work?) This will act as a brake, since many will have to weigh the advantages of “freedom” against potential anarchy. I find a lot of zigzagging and fraying at the edges more likely than a precipitous collapse.

[SuperLuminal]

IMHO, this qualifies as “Fake News”...

[Reverend Wright]

only if there is an economic collapse first