And the angel said unto her, Fear not, Mary: for thou hast found favour with God. And, behold, thou shalt conceive in thy womb, and bring forth a son, and shalt call his name JESUS. He shall be great, and shall be called the Son of the Highest: and the Lord God shall give unto him the throne of his father David: And he shall reign over the house of Jacob for ever; and of his kingdom there shall be no end.
Luke 1:30-33 KJV
The largest event of the week historically was the solid first agreement with the Chinese negotiators. It was not the Seinfeld Impeachment which the Three Pillars of Propaganda (Academia, media and DNC) were promoting, it was this agreement of trillions of dollars for these two powerful engines of the world.
The double nothing burger impeachment was touted as historic, when in reality it was the largest abuse of power by congress in our history. They did just what the framers of our country warned against which a congress could attempt to overstep its limited power to try to oust a duly elected President. No matter if those Dim Congressmen believe the President is impeachable the brilliance of the founders made it nearly impossible to succeed and, in this case, will be humiliated when it gets to the Sinate. There are going to be some serious phone meltdowns on Romney’s offices as well as every other wavering Repub.
How can you understate the size of the potential signing of a trade agreement between the two largest economies in the world? To have the Chinese tear down the tariff barriers is the largest event in the last forty years. They have been on favored country status for the entire time allowing them to have the most unfair advantage of nearly any country in the world and n ow they must play on the same field as America. This will make both countries stronger. Hope President Trump did not negotiate a Quid Pro Quo or Nazi will be having another Peach Fo Fi hearing.
This agreement is going to make hundreds of thousands of jobs as America is going to be able to sell its vast agriculture and raw materials to a growing Chinese economy. This is phenomenal news for the farmers as the Chinese have been stopping the export of US grains and livestock due to massive tariffs and regulations. Basically, to put anything together with China you had to have a relationship with a Communist Chinese importer who knows how to bribe all the officials and cities to bring imports across the docks. Most companies do not have the manpower to cross that hurdle and will not try.
With the new Trump tariffs and Chinese counter tariffs there has been a boycott on America goods as well as Chinese which has damaged both countries ability to trade. There have been many instances in the lumber industry the Chinese would take lumber from Canada but not the US because of the tariffs coming across the docks on American goods. This of course is being repeated throughout the different industries and especially agriculture, but it was a punishment which has brought the Chinese to the table.
Is it possible the Chinese are not only feeling the pain of the Trump tariffs, but they are watching the polls and seeing the likelihood of a second Trump term? Could it be the Impeachment Rocket has made it more likely the President will be who they have to Quid Pro Quo with for the next five years and decided to cut their losses? Could this entire Pelosi yelling at the moon caused the Chinese to throw up their hands and stop the trade war to feed their people? Could it be they see a massive payback from the people on the Communist Party like Britain and what they see in their own Hong Kong protests?
Very likely the Chinese seeing the worm is turning and
President Trump is doing the turning. With the innerweb there are people watching what is happening in America around the world. They are watching his rallies and listening to what he is saying about the swamp. They are seeing what is really happening under the surface and can see and smell the corruption in these massive bureaucracies.
They see the coup that was started on Trump during the election and on the day he took office. Now they see this latest abuse of power and are sickened by it in their own countries and are looking for their own Trumps.
Countries and swamps are being exposed which is why you have Hong Kong and Brexit. The Dims turned a close British election into a massive landslide. The overzealous Dems showed the entire world what power hungry politicians do when they are trying to overthrow the will of the people by using an innocent phone call into something it was not.
The world saw the Three Pillars of Communism in all its glory trying to Shang-hi an innocent man with a complete abuse of power. They saw that connection between the swamp and the power structure in Moscow on the Potomac and it was not pretty. Britain and China have been monitoring this and you saw some major movement the opposite direction as one moved with a vote and the other as a tyrannical dictator making even larger concessions. Both are unheard of as the Brits have the most Conservative parliament in 50 years and the Chinese did the unthinkable.
Pelosi’s Party may be high fiving and spiking the football behind closed doors, they are spiking it on the gallows trap doors. They have nooses around their necks and are mocking the crowds waiting for the inevitable. They may be laughing and pointing now but President Trump has his hands on the lever and the crowd is going to have the last laugh at their final impeachment dance. Imagine if they would have stood with the President on these trade deals rather than resisting him no matter how it would benefit the American worker?
Pray the World is Waking Up
Thanks! I didn’t get your essay on FReepmail this morning.
Trump has 4D chessed the chicoms once again.
They are screwed no matter what they do.! If they don't sing on our companies go to other parts of the world to get what they need. Even the farmers can eventually find other outlets for their crops and the chicoms lose.
Also if they don't sign on the US keeps collecting big time from the tariffs which Trump loves and he should.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/12/14/ustr-releases-summary-fact-sheet-outlining-u-s-china-phase-one-agreement/
As usual the Conservative Treehouse,Sundance and company have it down in spades.
Here's a clip:
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For undisclosed reasons (we can guess, but probably shouldn't’t on this one) the 86-page agreement is unlikely to be made public until after the USMCA completes the ratification process in congress (both chambers).
Given the politics in China, and Beijing’s position following the U.S. resolution vis-a-vis Hong Kong, it is doubtful there will be a high level signing ceremony. Chairman Xi would appear weak internally as dominant President Trump would be seen as digging Eagle claws into vulnerable dragon. Vice-Premier Liu He and USTR Lighthizer are likely to be visible faces.
It remains in President Trump’s strategic interests for Beijing to refuse being committed to granular specifics. In a very unusual way ‘uncertainty‘ actually works in favor of the U.S. objective within this trade dynamic as future investment in China will be tenuous without those specifics. An unstable ‘status quo’ is an advantage to Trump.
Because President Trump has flipped the leverage dynamic; and because hundreds of manufacturers are seeking "alternatives to the risk China represents"; the historic cunning and duplicity -China’s forte’- that creates distrust, actually works in favor of the U.S.
While many multinational investor interests will be watching, waiting, to see if China will (for the first time) live up to their words, President Trump will be providing alternatives and incentives…. while highlighting stability in North America.
The stock market responded exactly as would be expected on Friday to the announcement of the ‘phase-one’ agreement in principal… the market didn’t buy it, because everything remains tenuous at best. This is an indication the multinationals would/will be more likely to follow the alternatives the USMCA provides.
The Wall Street multinationals not responding favorably is a very good sign. This predicts an ongoing decoupling, which is exactly President Trump’s goal.
It really is remarkable. No-one else could have pulled this off.
Possibly, but the greatest fear of China is a decoupling from the US and a rearranging of supply chains outside of China. The US only exports about $150 billion to China while importing about $500 billion from China.
By comparison, we export $280 billion to Canada and import $300 billion. We export $250 billion to Mexico and import $315 billion. The new USMCA is far more impactful than the China deal for use. It involves $1.15 trillion worth of trade activity.
Also, our total trade activity with the EU is greater than it is with China. The US has the world's must lucrative consumer market. We import $2.3 trillion of goods and services annually and export $1.5 trillion. China needs us far more than we need them. Trump is the first President that understands that we have all the leverage.
Not so fast on this one. There are some with differing opinions
Art Of The Deal Versus The Art Of War Over the past 18-months we have written numerous articles about the ongoing “trade war,” which was started by Trump against China. As I wrote previously:
“This is all assuming Trump can actually succeed in a trade war with China. Let’s step back to the G-20 meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. As I wrote then:
‘There is a tremendous amount of ‘hope’ currently built into the market for a ‘trade war truce’ this weekend. However, as we suggested previously, the most likely outcome was a truce…but no deal. That is exactly what happened.
While the markets will likely react positively next week to the news that ‘talks will continue,’ the impact of existing tariffs from both the U.S. and China continue to weigh on domestic firms and consumers.
More importantly, while the continued ‘jawboning’ may keep ‘hope alive’ for investors temporarily, these two countries have been ‘talking’ for over a year with little real progress to show for it outside of superficial agreements.
Importantly, we have noted that Trump would eventually ‘cave’ into the pressure from the impact of the ‘trade war’ he started.
The reasons, which have been entirely overlooked by the media, is that China’s goals are very different from the U.S. To wit:
China is playing a very long game. Short-term economic pain can be met with ever-increasing levels of government stimulus. The U.S. has no such mechanism currently, but explains why both Trump and Vice-President Pence have been suggesting the Fed restarts QE and cuts rates by 1%.
The pressure is on the Trump Administration to conclude a “deal,” not on China. Trump needs a deal done before the 2020 election cycle AND he needs the markets and economy to be strong. If the markets and economy weaken because of tariffs, which are a tax on domestic consumers and corporate profits, as they did in 2018, the risk-off electoral losses rise. China knows this and are willing to “wait it out” to get a better deal.
China is not going to jeopardize its 50 to 100-year economic growth plan on a current President who will be out of office within the next 4-years at most. It is unlikely as the next President will take the same hard-line approach on China that President Trump has, so agreeing to something that won’t be supported in the future is doubtful.”
As noted in the second point above, on Friday, Trump caved to get the “Trade Deal” off the table before the election. As noted in September, China had already maneuvered Trump into a losing position.
“China knows that Trump needs a way out of the “trade war” he started, but that he needs something he can “boast” as a victory to a largely economically ignorant voter base. Here is how a “trade deal” could get done.
Understanding that China has already agreed to 80% of demands for a trade deal, such as buying U.S. goods, opening markets to U.S. investors, and making policy improvements in certain areas, Trump could conclude that ‘deal’ at the October meeting.”
Read the highlighted text above and compare it to the statement from the WSJ: on Thursday:
“The U.S. side has demanded Beijing make firm commitments to purchase large quantities of U.S. agricultural and other products, better protect U.S. intellectual-property rights and widen access to China’s financial-services sector.”
What is missing from the agreement was the most critical 20%:
Cutting the share of the state in the overall economy from 38% to 20%, Implementing an enforcement check mechanism; and, Technology transfer protections
These are the “big ticket” items that were the bulk of the reason Trump launched the “trade war” to begin with. Unfortunately, for China, these items are seen as an infringement on its sovereignty, and requires a complete abandonment the “Made in China 2025” industrial policy program.
The USTR did note that the Phase One deal:
“Requires structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange.”
However, since there is no actual enforcement mechanism besides merely pushing tariffs back to where they were, none of this will be implemented.
All of this aligns with our previous suggestion the only viable pathway to a “trade deal” would be a full surrender.
“However, Trump can set aside the last 20%, drop tariffs, and keep market access open, in exchange for China signing off on the 80% of the deal they already agreed to.”
Which is precisely what Trump agreed to.
Much of your essay takes me back almost 4 decades when the Gipper took down the mighty Soviet Union. Trump’s brilliant negotiations with China will mark both the decline of the Reds and their corrupt party and, incredibly the birth of a worldwide trade power....CHINA. Under British control Hong Kong was the ultimate in free enterprise development. Everything was possible. If you wanted a custom tailored suit, new custom dress shoes and a half dozen dress shirts with your initials embroidered on your cuffs all could be done in 48 hours or less. Many of the Chinese in Hong Kong worked relentlessly when they were allowed to retain some of their profits. Anything you wanted in the world was available virtually tax free. Now Imagine 1000 Hong Kongs with uninhibited free trade and explosive entrepreneurialism. Thanks to Trump, the people of China are on the verge of an exciting new world without the chains of communism. The reciprocal benefit to America is obvious as we feed and supply the growing Chinese economy. Yes, so many parallels to what Reagan accomplished defeating the Soviets to now Trump’s tactical decision to avoid a continued trade war with China. Millions and millions of Chinese will work their tails off on their own farms and businesses as they reject the communist party.