Is Beijing suppressing the true scale of infections? Nurse treating coronavirus sufferers in China claims 90,000 people have already been infected

Daily Mail ^ | Published: 17:13 EST, 25 January 2020 | Updated: 22:59 EST, 25 January 2020 | Jonathan Bucks For The Mail On Sunday and Megan Sheets and Ryan Fahey and Ariel Zilber

[AdmSmith]

If that figure (90k) is credible Niman would have tweeted it

https://twitter.com/hniman

[MrEdd]

Early on, the mortality was 2 percent.
If this spread through China’s densely populated regions 90,000 would be about right if four and a half million people have contracted this.

[Zhang Fei]

[Your point is just plain commonsense. Hospitals and clinics communicate amongst themselves regularly. Especially in a crisis. Each hospital and clinic will have someone keeping stats. Not hard to call around and tally those.]

---

More to the point - an area the size of Maryland is now basically a gigantic hospice, since there is no cure. Sick people are just hoping that their immune systems spare them from the Grim Reaper. Hospital care is merely palliative at this point.

The people working at these hospitals aren’t just medical professionals - they are area people with friends and relatives in the danger zone. You can bet they’re not just figuring out their odds of survival - they’re communicating these numbers to their friends and relatives. Some medicos are probably trying to decide whether they should flee to avoid certain death. Most presumably have families to care for, whether parents or children. And if they think healthy friends and relatives should leave the quarantined zone by hook or by crook to avoid infection and almost certain death, they will tell them.

[PghBaldy]

Thank you. My thoughts exactly.

[nuconvert]

And considering Wuhan is the epicenter, and assume most cases would be there, even at 3.5 million cases (allowing for 1 million to have spread outside the city) , that would be 1/3 of the population of Wuhan sick. And that would have been in the past, whenever this video was made.
Ridiculous.

[353FMG]

Did it not start by eating kung pao bat?

[MrEdd]

China has a ridiculous population
1/50 of 4,500,000 = 90,000.

[Zhang Fei]

Translation note: My Chinese language skills are non-native and rusty since I'm not Chinese and acquired them Berlitz-style via expensive classes decades ago. But the phrase she used was 九万多人死 - jiu wan duo ren si - (courtesy of Google translate) or 90,000 dead. Maybe she misspoke. Maybe she thought that's what the numbers were, but she was wrong. But 90,000 dead was what she said in the video.

[353FMG]

90000 dead are easy to hide in a population of more than a billion.

[mosesdapoet]

Despite their minimized outbreak announcements The China government reaction demonstrates there’s a serious outbreak of this dangerous disease.

[Zhang Fei]

[And considering Wuhan is the epicenter, and assume most cases would be there, even at 3.5 million cases (allowing for 1 million to have spread outside the city) , that would be 1/3 of the population of Wuhan sick. And that would have been in the past, whenever this video was made.
Ridiculous.]

---

I agree it seems absurd. But in China, people who disseminate information like this put themselves in great personal jeopardy, up to and including death, because the charge is essentially espionage, for disclosure of state secrets, the penalty for which is death. So assuming she’s in Wuhan, the incentives are for her to understate the number. Whatever the accuracy of the number, I expect she believes it to be true.

And while the number seems absurd, it also seems absurd that China would shut down 5% of its economy - the quarantined area which is roughly the size of Maryland - to combat *any* bug. And then there are measures being taken outside of Wuhan. The Chinese New Year is basically China’s holiday shopping season - the equivalent of the Thanksgiving to Christmas retail period kicked off by Black Friday. That shopping season is basically shut down in China, with government exhortations to the entire population to stay home and avoid public places.

[nuconvert]

It wouldn’t be 90,000 in a billion. The population of Wuhan which is the epicenter is like 11 million. You’d have to have the vast majority in Wuhan.

[AdmSmith]

...since there is no cure.

It might be possible to reduce the virus effect on the patient and increase the probability for survival (the mortality as of now is around 3 %) see
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3810827/posts?page=27#27

[nuconvert]

“I agree it seems absurd. But in China, people who disseminate information like this put themselves in great personal jeopardy, up to and including death, because the charge is essentially espionage, for disclosure of state secrets, the penalty for which is death. So assuming she’s in Wuhan, the incentives are for her to understate the number. Whatever the accuracy of the number, I expect she believes it to be true.”

I don’t agree with your premise. Let’s assume the person on the video is really a nurse& is really in China. She could be overworked, stressed out, and exaggerating in order to draw attention to their need for help & supplies. There’s no doubt that the virus is making people sick. Seeing hospitals & health clinics ten times busier than normal & the clinics/hospitals running out of supplies would be frightening. If they had appealed to Beijing & weren’t getting a response, a person might feel that the only way they could get help would be to make a video & exaggerate so that the rest of the world puts pressure & helps them.
Or the video could be a hoax. Those are 2 other possibilities .

[nuconvert]

see post #32

[Zhang Fei]

[It might be possible to reduce the virus effect on the patient and increase the probability for survival (the mortality as of now is around 3 %) see]

---

The mortality rate is the dead/the infected. It’s possible that the mortality rate is far higher, meaning that while only a few hundred thousand are infected, tens of thousands are dead. Maybe not 90,000, but far higher than the regime has admitted. Why would it downplay the mortality rate? To avert a complete cessation of trade links with China, and a complete shutdown of its economy.

[Karl Spooner]

90000 dead are easy to hide in a population of more than a billion.

I tend to agree.

===================================================================

[353FMG]

You’re right That makes the virus even worse than reported.

[PIF]

Here’s comments from another thread:

1) “... verified by a native speaker. The video’s narrator does say 90,000 dead, not infected.”

2) “My wife is Taiwanese and said the translation is DEAD not infected. 90,000 DEAD”

[PIF]

5 day shelf life so to speak.