Interesting stuff in that video with the Hong Kong doctors talking about their modelling and forecasts.
The existing data shows an exponential rate of growth, and the growth rate is increasing as well. The model with and without the quarantine of Wuhan, and the quarantine doesn’t seem to have helped much.
Have already seen cases in the five major cities nearby (Jining(?), Bejing, Shanghai and others).
Estimated to peak in Wuhan in 22 weeks!
Most affected other city will be Jining(?) - I couldn’t understand him - sounded like Seinging to me. Too bad the camera man didn’t show the charts.
Peak in Jining estimated in April/May.
He said that out of those five major cities that will be impacted by the virus, 70% of travel to outside of Asia goes through those cities!
He talks about how it remains to be seen if infected people in those cities can spread the virus to a third party. Rather than just people traveling through Wuhan that get infected in Wuhan, and end up in Bejing. But to me, that would seem to be likely that a person infected in Wuhan can spread it to someone in Bejing.
Anyway - he said that if that happens, then these five cities can expect an epidemic as well.
Then says that they can not predict anything, but it is not a trivial possibility that it could become a global pandemic. He said they were presenting these results so soon after the report because time is of the essence.
China may have to enact draconian measures. Stopping public events in those cities. Shutting down transportation between the cities. (Although their models say the Wuhan quarantine didn’t help much?)
And then if these countermeasures fail and the cities do have epidemics, then to use mitigation tools developed during the SARS and other epidemics. (I paused the video there - I think they are going into question and answer next).
I sure wish that all passengers coming into the USA would be kept contained for two weeks, rather than just checking their temperature!
China’s Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think
A report from the inside...
QUOTE:
The coronavirus in China is spreading, and largely could have been prevented. A town 7 km from where the virus was discovered in Wuhan had a state run banquet with 100,000 people eating off of the same dishes. This was 2 days after 49 cases were confirmed in Wuhan, China. The Chinese government is trying to save face, and now it is backfiring.