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While we're on the topic of presenting clear information and not hype, specifically around R₀, a study is making the rounds and people are claiming it says every infected person will infect 2.6 more people (or, technically, R₀=2.6), and we're all gonna die etc.

First, this is from "WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UK... This is an extended version of an analysis previously shared with WHO, governments and academic networks between 22/1/20 - 24/1/20. "

In other words, this is from an academic group that collaborates with WHO, not WHO. Further, if you check out the bona fides of the signatories, they are primarily mathematicians and statisticians, not medical doctors. Indeed, as I'll show shortly, this paper is pure math/data science/simulations.

Secondarily, the report does not say every person in China with the contravirus will infect 2.6 newbies. Quoting directly from the PDF:

We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories.

Thus, this is a mathematical ESTIMATE based on PRIOR ESTIMATES and COMPUTATIONAL MODELING. Now, there is always a place for math and statistics. But the methods they're employing here are in-line with what's brandished by "climate change scientists." Color me skeptical.

But EVEN IF we agree with their methods and math, the data in their table show that their estimated R₀ actually ranges from 0.9 to 3.5 depending upon there being 1000 or 4000 cases by Jan 18. That is a LOT of variation.

In fact, often times in the midst of a pandemic, R₀ can't be directly calculated. It has to be estimated, and those estimates (as seen above) are subject to the same errors that infect mankind whenever panic or insouciance sets in.

Of course we should not ignore this situation. It's worth monitoring and taking some action like protecting the citizens of America. But we shouldn't act like these guys...

Agreed. Did not preclude me from having N95’s, nitrile gloves, goggles, tyvek suits, duct tape, a sprayer and several cases of bleach etc... on hand since the ebola scare. I have the standard healthcare worker protection protocol in place.

If not this one a global pandemic is inevitable. Population size and < 1 day global travel make it a certainty.

I am not panicking. I am prepared for the zombie apocalypse.

Un Bob, the numbers they are using are only those the CCP permitted released. So in effect any conclusion about the infection rate are worthless because the CCP never releases real numbers about anything.

Another thread takes the original 41 and cases and found that: "One significant finding from the research was that although some of the fatal cases of 2019-nCoV were among people with underlying diseases, most of the first 41 patients infected were healthy. Approximately one-third of these patients required intensive care, and six of them died."

you do the math