The coronavirus could cripple China's economy for longer than Wall Street wants to believe

Business Insider ^ | 16 Feb 2020 | Linette Lopez

[BeauBo]

Wall Street is convincing itself that China will bounce back relatively quickly around the end of the first quarter, when it expects the coronavirus' spread to be contained.

This is banker delusion. China's economy is growing much more slowly than it was in 2003, when the SARS outbreak hit.

Plus, the financial sector is in much worse shape. It's loaded with debt, and credit conditions are still deteriorating from bailouts last year. This will all make it much harder to fund struggling businesses and local governments.

[BeauBo]

Unlike during the SARS outbreak in 2003, the Chinese financial system is now overburdened with historically huge amounts of debt - a large chunk of which will never be repaid.

Also, foreign businesses today are looking for opportunities to get their supply chains out of China, rather than into it.

At some point, their system is going to have to re-value things back to reality, and that is going to be a pretty massive re-valuation.

[RummyChick]

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hubei-doctors-warn-even-deadlier-coronavirus-reinfection-causing-sudden-heart-attacks

[Karl Spooner]

Also, a possible silver lining, “filthy Democrat cities to be hit hardest”.

https://youtu.be/u6YpKEeaVlU?t=3370

[gasport]

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/chongqing-traffic

[huckfillary]

The PRC is so effing stupid. When are they going to simply embrace free-market capitalism? What does anyone get out of tyranny? What’s the payoff? I must be missing something.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

See where the outbreak is hurting Corona beer sales because some idiots think that the beer carries the virus?

[Zhang Fei]

[Unlike during the SARS outbreak in 2003, the Chinese financial system is now overburdened with historically huge amounts of debt - a large chunk of which will never be repaid. ]

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They’ll extend and pretend like the Japanese did for decades. It’ll probably work a little better for the Chinese, because the Japanese had ripped off everything they could rip off by the time of Japan’s economic doldrums. Whereas the Chinese still have a bunch of catching up to do. But that mid-single digit growth rate will probably go to the low single digits or even zero for a decade or more, as China works through the bad loans.

[kingu]

A trillion dollar hit to the economy each and every month this continues, we’ve past the first month, figure two more months and then they can start production on orders from 5 months ago. Meanwhile, people around the world are scrambling to find other sources who won’t be running back to China after.

This is assuming that everything goes perfectly. If not, it gets 10x worse.

[DeweyCA]

Power and corruption go with autocratic governments. The elitists don’t want to upend their “gravy train.” Just ask Joe Biden and other elitist Dems, along with past officials in Ukraine. Castro, Arafat, Stalin, Chavez and Maduro (along with other dictators) got filthy rich while they were in power.

[Vermont Lt]

And where do you think they will scurry to. Right into our nice red suburban neighborhoods.

[campaignPete R-CT]

There is no limit to what this could do to China.

[plain talk]

“the Chinese financial system is now overburdened with historically huge amounts of debt - a large chunk of which will never be repaid.”

sounds like the U.S.

[Reno89519]

Good, bring those businesses back to America and let the communist regime crash and burn.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[Fungi]

Bingo!!! What a perfidious joke. The “federal” reserve system was made for just that purpose. It is not federal
(a privately controlled bank) and it is not “reserve.” It will crumble as all others have done from the same mistake.

[mrsmith]

“At some point...” China Markets up today.

If all goes as expected they’ll be back in production Mar 1.
And the hit will be significant but manageable.

If not, they’re toast.

[Karl Spooner]

Any suburb around Chicago is as bad as Chicago. Keep your distance from them as best you can if you are stuck in s suburb.

[Jane Long]

Bannon, on Maria’s Morning show said that the Chinese markets will NOT open, as they’ve been saying they would, on Mar 3.

[SecondAmendment]

> The PRC is so effing stupid.

Methinks you have it backwards.

The guys running the PRC are geniuses, since the have used the greed and corruption of the West's "elite" to effectively take control of our markets, financial systems, and governments.

Thus one of the reasons Trump is President.

[Jane Long]

See post 18.