Would like to know the true % of Blacks for the Prez.
Mike Shepard (@MJSHEP on Twit) has followed this for 2.5 years on four different polls.
Trump is regularly between 16% and 26% approval. This doesn’t include the outlier recent polls that had him at 25%-30%. I don’t believe that.
“Approval” is one thing. Voting is another. I think you cut that # in half, meaning he’s between 8 and 13% in the vote (He got 8 last time). However, last time in three big states (NC, FL, PA) 3% more blacks stayed homne in 2016 than in 2012.
The “Stay-at-home” is = to 1/2 point in the vote. I think that of those 16-26%, once you subtract Trump’s actual vote, let’s say, 12%, you factor in the stay-at-home at 1/2 vote for another 3-5% “actual” impact.
Trump will “get” between 12 and 15% of the black vote either directly or indirectly, almost double what he got in 2016 on the upperbound #.
Kind of ironic that down here in “Mississippi Burning” land, I have seen many Blacks with Trump signs and who are not afraid to say they support him....and who also had “Romney” signs when he ran against Obama....