[AndyJackson]

Shouldn’t the size of the country’s population be taken into account?

No! That is the point of exponential increases. The important number is the number of newly infected / day divided by the number of presently infected. If it doubles every three days, it doesn't matter where you start. Soon most of your population will have been infected. The difference between infecting all of Italy and all of the US is about 1/2 of a week.

By plotting the numbers on a log graph you can determine the alpha for each country and as Travis's plot shows it is pretty much the same country to country.

Now, if you were to show plots for Taiwan or Singapore or China you would see very different patterns because they have broken the chain of multiplication through effective public health measures.

[chimera]

Do you think a purely exponential model is appropriate in this case, particularly as the timeline is extended? In most physical systems, exponential behavior is generally unsustainable, since the rate constants become, at some point, a function of the dependent variable. That makes the differential equations non-linear (i.e., feedback). You then have to go to numerical methods for approximate solutions.

For a pandemic like this one, it is likely that the feedback mechanisms will include public response (containment and prevention), and development of hardened immunity among the recovered population.

[Travis McGee]

[socalgop]

Thebatupidity/normalcy bias people are exhibiting here is insane.

[Elsie]

No! That is the point of exponential increases.

I tend to disagree.

I feel the RATE/percentage of change is what is relevant. 10,000 victims in China vs 10,000 victims in Tonga are NOT the same.