Ingredients of COVID-19 mega-disaster brewing in Syria as Turkey's Leader Erdogan threatens to push Syrian refugees into Europe

You could not concoct a worse scenario for a pandemic catastrophe than what is unfolding Syria. Start with a regime that depends on troops sent from Iran, where satellites detect trenches being bulldozed for bodies felled by the plague of COVID-19. Add the bombing of hospitals by that same regime and secretiveness to the point of punishing doctors who speak out about the coronavirus. Then consider millions of refugees living in close quarters in camps and others fleeing their chaotic and impoverished homeland into Turkey, whose leader wants to send them into Europe.

Snowy Syrian refugee camp near Turkey border last December.
(YouTube screen grab.)

Joel Gehrke reports in The Examiner that MedGlobal founder Zaher Sahloul, whose organization provides aid to refugees, believes that at least 2,400 cases are being hidden by the regime, and:

"Their thinking within the regime is that, if they volunteer this information, then that puts them under more pressure from their supporters," he said. "There is all this pattern in Syria of covering up these issues or delaying the information until it gets out of control."

Assad's regime maintains that the country has no coronavirus cases, but officials in Pakistan say that some of the confirmed cases in their country originated in Syria. Some analysts believe that Iranian forces have carried the virus to Syria, as Tehran is providing the regime with ground troops even as American officials believe that the Iranian military is hampered by one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the world.

"Iran sits in the middle of the theater, so their ability to pass that infection to other states is very worrisome," Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee this week.

Re: Slightly off topic

The data today from the USA is encouraging.

The “Case Fatality Rate” (CFR) has shown a steady down trend for seven straight days.

Obviously, we are testing more people, which helps to push it down, but our test rate is still the lowest for medically advanced countries.

According to the Johns Hopkins data page (last update 40 minutes ago):

USA - 54 deaths
USA - 2,726 confirmed infections
USA - 1.98% CFR (54 divided by 2,726)

The final mortality rate for most USA flu seasons is between 0.1% and 0.2%.

I live in King County (Seattle). I have not shopped yet today.

Most of our stores have had item purchase limits in place for more than a week.

The worst day we had was after the first COVID death, which was the first in the USA.

Some shelves were empty yesterday, but there is no sense of panic among the shoppers, even though we have 37 fatalities, which is the highest in the USA.

Calculating any numbers in the US—including deaths is a waste of time for the next few weeks. There have been so few tests—in so few locations—that you will never get an accurate reading. Wait until we get a little testing under our belts.

No criticizing you. And I understand the desire to know.

But it’s kind of a wasted effort.

Re: it’s kind of a wasted effort

CFR is not perfect, but the CDC uses it for dynamic events.

We have almost 9 weeks of USA data.

Mass testing is just going to push CFR below 1% since 99% of Americans are not infected.

The fact that COVID-19 is not infecting any children or young adults is certainly meaningful and amazing.

I live in King County (Seattle), the most infected county in the USA.

When they closed all the schools and UW yesterday, not one child or college student had tested positive.

South Korea changed very little today.

Infections up about +100.

Deaths up +3.

I am not trying to minimize the danger, but the present climate of news media hysteria cannot be justified.

I mean, is the USA now going to destroy its own economy every year when flu season starts?

I certainly hope not.

Re: “The flu is planned for. It is a “normal” occurrence.”

It may be planned for, but, year to year, there is nothing “normal” about it.

2011-2012 - 140,000 hospitalized - 12,000 deaths

2017-2018 - 810,000 hospitalized - 61,000 deaths

2019-2020 (est.) - 22,000 to 55,000 deaths

By the way - flu cases “normally” begin to drop sharply starting March 1st because of increasing temperatures, humidity, and sun exposure.

And, here's some interesting infection rate data from Washington state - which is Ground Zero for COVID-19 in the USA.

Everyone tested has known exposure or serious symptoms:

Number Tested - 7,764

Positive - 642 (8%)

Negative - 7,122 (92%)

An 8% infection rate for high risk individuals looks pretty encouraging to me.

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