Posted on 03/17/2020 6:42:23 AM PDT by lasereye
Our call of the day comes from a forecaster who escaped this bear market by exiting 90% of stocks before the virus started to grip the world, after he warned months prior of too much optimism for equities. Yves Lamoureux, the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co. who correctly predicted a panic event of 2018, now sees a series of rolling bear markets ahead.
He started talking about what he calls a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 as early as late October 2019, then began selling stocks in December, leaving him with just a “few good ideas,” by late January.
“I think after 10 years of being on steroids, I’d say this market is very fragile. I was looking for something to turn the bull market out. The virus was the needle that pricked the bubble,” says Lamoureux.
He believes markets may be reaching the end of the current selloff — though it will expose overindebted companies and consumers — and that should open up opportunities to selectively pick companies. But it isn’t over.
“We’ll have another [selloff] next year and another in 2022, so I’m expecting three big waves down. They’re going to be followed by big bounces and those things should be driven by waves of the infection,” he says. Lamoureux, who says he studied microbiology at Concordia University, thinks the virus could come back more aggressively a couple more times, hitting stocks again and again.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Hopefully he's wrong. Can someone who has had it get it again? It seems like that would have to be true if he's right.
Yay, more happy news this morning...
Someone with a brain who saved a lot of money.
Why will it stop in 2022?
If you’ve had it and recovered, you have the antibodies and are immune. What he is talking about is a wave of infections, a period of social distancing where the number of cases retract, and another wave as people begin to act normally. But I think that the virus has already infected enough people with mild to little symptoms that new cases will become rare as the number of non-infected people become fewer.
Quick everybody panic! so much for the rugged tuff conservative :-) clutch the pearls and hide in the basement for years!
Wow, this guy exited weeks ago when the panic was well under way. What a genius.
The article doesn't make that clear, but it seems to be because of his belief coronavirus will not be done this year.
“1. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. “
The fact that someone made a good call before is absolutely no guarantee that his future calls will be right. This is a worthless prediction.
It’s called justification
There will be bear markets to justify his selling off of stocks
Those who escaped infection in the first wave can provide the basis for a second or third wave. Eventually, the virus either disappears because almost everyone has experienced it and is immune, an effective vaccine is developed and widely administered, or the virus becomes endemic like the flu, with recurrent, mostly seasonal waves of infection.
The Spanish flu had three waves.
Any statement of the form ‘person who predicted X , predicts Y’ means absolutely nothing. The headlines are clickbaits.
Wow, this guy exited weeks ago when the panic was well under way. What a genius.
************
Every time there’s a sell off an article appears about some “genius” who got out before the crash.
I think he would understand that if he studied microbiology. I tend to think you’re right even though I have no expertise in this area, because the same flu strain doesn’t keep returning.
Someone always got out before the crash. Else there would have been no crash. The real issue is how many geniuses got out of 34 of the last 3 crashes.
This certainly proves the hold the Enemy Media still has on the masses!
Enough, already!
Look, here’s the deal! -Joe Biden voice
We are either going to beat the curve and get in front of it, or we are going to get Rick rolled big time, hardcore.
Period. -Joe Biden voice
This all depends on no treatments or vaccines occurring. People are stupid to think things will not change. We do not live in a static world.
These are drugs already on the market and showing progress: Favilavir, Actemra, REGN3048-3051, blood transfusions from survivors, hydrochloroquine, chloroquine, remdesivir, lopinavir, ritonavir, kaletra and aluvia.
The vaccine will take a little longer but the H1N1 vaccine went from Initial Phase I human testing to 65 million doses being administered in less than six months.
How about some good news?
The media wont report it so here is some.
-China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
-China Death Rate Is Plummeting. .4 -.7
-Shipping And Factories Are Near Back To Normal.
- Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
- Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
- A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
- Apple reopens all 42 china stores,
- Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
- Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
- Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
- Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
- 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
- A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
- A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
- Tulsa County’s first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
- All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
- Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
So it’s not ALL bad news. Let’s care for each other and stay focused on safety of those most vulnerable.
Is your trip to Harrah's still on?
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