Replies

The current world case mortality rate is > 5%. The US CMR is now >2%. Flu is 0.1%. Some will argue that there might be a lot of cases we don't know about, that would bring that number down some. But it's clearly more deadly that the flu. It's just not as widespread as the flu, yet.
It's more infectious than the flu. the flu has a R0 factor of 1.25. Every person that gets it spreads it 2 1.25 more people. CV is believed to have an R0 of 2-3%. The R0 factor is not intrinsic to the virus. We can lower it by social distancing.
No immunity. A lot of us have some immunity to the flu. We've had it before. And many of us got flu vaccines. That immunity slows the spread of the flu through the community. Nobody is believed to have immunity to CV. That means the virus will spread through the population infecting far more people than the flu does.
No summer break. We're still hoping the virus slows down in summer, but the viral spread in countries that are already having 80 and 90 degree whether cast's a whole lot of doubt on this.
Liklihood it will overwhelm our hospital systems. All of the factors above indicate it will overwhelm our hospital systems, exceeding the supply of ICU beds and ventilators, unless we take action to mitigate it's spread.
Slow recovery time. Severe cases are ending up on ventilators 20 to 30 days. We're hopeful that treatments can be found that will reduce that. But until we find that treatment, it means patients will be in the hospital longer, taking up beds far longer than a flu patient. <\Ol>
We've already seen it overwhelm hospital systems in China, Italy, and Spain. When that happens horrible choices have to be made. Italy and Spain have both chosen to deny ventilators to people over 60, so that they can give them to younger people more likely to survive.

Who is dying?

People 65+ and way more likely 75+. I will say from what I have seen the dead are 99+ to have serious health issues.

Why are we locking down people under 65?

Almost 100% of those dying or even becoming seriously ill from this bs virus are past retirement age and their staying home would have NO effect on the economy.

Once again WHY are we locking down the country.....why?

For a flu virus that is one month in its attack on the US population, the statistics you quote are unknowable.

The proper comparison is the swine flu for which there was also no vaccine or preventive treatment. Unfortunately the statistics are not as clear as those that are reported on this one on an hourly basis. For the swine flo, H1N1, the CDC still lists ranges for cases, hospitalization and deaths. The R0 therefore is not reliable. Likewise the R0 for the regular flu which has a vaccine and treatment drugs is not comparable.

I agree the covid 19 appears to be more lethal than the swine flu but that may be because it affects the older population rather than the H1N1 which in 2009-10 affected the young who generally have more resistance.

There is a lot we don’t know and I agree with other posters that we seem to have jumped to the scary side of projections and worst case scenarios. Like in many things moderation of our reactions is in order.

I say when the death curve reaches its tipping point in a week or two we remove all economic restrictions and let the economy recover.

1. Mortality is for SARS-CoV-2 is between 0.2% to 1.3%. based on estimations of as of 28th March, representing between 1.88%and 11.43%of the population contracted the virus. found in the report called
"Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries"

2. It's more infectious than the flu. True

3.No immunity. True though zinc ionphores are working fantastic:
Chloroquine is inflammatory is not a good for the blood to clear out the cell area.
Hydroxychloroquine is an anti-inflammatory an is what should be used. This is the drug Trump is suggesting
Quercetin is an anti-inflammatory and can be found in some foods. As a preventative I would suggest quercetin zinc oxide that coats your throat. Vitamins C, D3 and B1.

4. No summer break. I don't know what country you're talking about? Though humanity plays a big role in keeping it alive up to 104 deg F.

5. Slow recovery time. That is because of the infection. Which wouldn't be a major problem if "Antibody-dependent enhancement" where not distributed. ADE changes the cells into a long term memory for an infection in the lungs when a new strain of SARS is introduced. Italy and China received the ADE. The US, Germany, South Korea and the UK didn't receive this failed drug in large numbers. (hundreds of millions where distributed world wide)

It's just not as widespread as the flu, yet.

It's more infectious than the flu.

To me, these two items are in direct contradiction to each other. If we became aware of the Chinese crisis in December (which we did), then their crisis probably began no later than November. During Nov - Jan, there was unrestricted air travel back and forth to China in every country in the world, including the US.

If the virus were as contagious as it is being made out to be, then the number of currently infected HAS TO BE much much higher than the recorded number of verified cases, yet the death and hospitalization rate STILL isn't higher than the flu. We're being told it is, but we're not seeing the actual numbers to back it up, unless they are secretly carting away tens of thousands of dead people in the middle of the night.

The numbers don't yet support the claims.

But it's clearly more deadly that the flu.

You can't really say that it is clearly more deadly than the flu except in individual cases.

CV is believed to have an R0 of 2-3%.

Believed by whom? You have to say believed because that is a wiggle-room word. Can't say is. The truth is that the R0 number for coronavirus is not known.

Nobody is believed to have immunity to CV.

There's that word believed again. Nobody knows. There are a lot of people that have tested positive and had no symptoms. We don't know even how many have been infected that have not been tested. A lot more people should be tested to find out, either for active coronavirus or antibody tested after the fact to see if they have been infected in the past.

Likelihood it will overwhelm our hospital systems.

That is another unknown. What about overwhelming our social welfare system? Isn't death by drug overdose or being murdered as concerning as death by viral illness? We are causing 3.5 million people to be unemployed over something that we can't quantify with any reliable measure. We have scientists who can't predict the weather telling us that sea levels are rising 10 centimeters per year. We have scientists telling us that the pandemic could kill between twenty thousand and two million and we are acting based on the two million. It is most likely somewhere in between 20,000 and 2,000,000.