IHME Model Lowers U.S. Coronavirus Death Projections by 25% to 60,415

Breitbart ^ | 04/08/20 | MICHAEL PATRICK LEAHY

[Enlightened1]

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections for coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by 25 percent from 81,766 to 60,415 early Wednesday morning.

The IHME model has come under withering criticism for vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed, but its death projections to date have closely tracked with actual data.

Wednesday’s dramatic reverse in the model’s projection of U.S. deaths was made without a press release from IHME explaining the reasons for the reduction. It marks the second reduction in the model’s U.S. deaths projections since April 1, when it forecast 93,765 U.S. fatalities.

On April 5, the death projections were lowered to 81,766.

“Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days,” IHME director Christopher Murray said on April 5.

“If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” Murray aded.

The April 8 iteration of the IHME model has reduced the projections of coronavirus deaths in New York State to 13,307, down from the April 6 projection of more than 15,000.

It persists, however, in claiming there will be a shortage of regular hospital beds in New York State on the peak day of Wednesday April 8, despite Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s statement at Tuesday’s press conference the state has “more than enough beds available.”

[Enlightened1]

Well imagine that?

[jmaroneps37]

These phonies are doing the same crap that the geniuses that do polling for Democrats do. They lie lie lie until the last minute than tell the truth so they can fool Democrats the next time. The fakers in this case are making up their numbers as they go along. DISGUSTING PUKES!

[cuban leaf]

And consider this: They’ve point blank admitted that if you die and test positive fore the virus, it will be counted as a virus death, no matter what else contributed - like, say, getting decapitated in an auto accident.

[Guenevere]

Bump

[SmokingJoe]

Alarmist, panic inducing fake figures from politically driven deep state operatives, who don't take any responsibility for anything.
So what's new?

[Buckeye McFrog]

This is all about the public health bureaucracy playing CYA over the fact that they scroooooood the pooch badly on this.

You won’t be calling for their heads if you’re cheering them as heroes.

Don’t know how many D.C. bureaucrats you’ve ever known, but believe me, they eat, sleep, breathe, exist in this thought pattern 24/7/365.

[Enlightened1]

Exactly!

It was all a fake to hurt the economy and get President Trump. All the Democrats, NeverTrumpers, D.C. Establishment, the Deep State and China all said they would sabotage our booming economy.

The timeline is a dead give away.

President Trump was notified in November of 2019. China said they had been trying to handle it since September 2019.

Now the FAKE STREAM NEWS are saying Coronavirus is highly contagious airborne virus that kills a lot of people. Yes no hospital noticed anything odd in that SIX MONTH PERIOD before the lock down? Life from September 2019 until mid to late February of 2020 for the most part was pretty normal.

If it was that deadly then everyone would have seen it. Certainly hospitals but nothing was there.

Keep in mind the W.H.O. calculated it one way while calculating the flu another way. Which was another sign that we were getting bad data.

A computer model can say anything. Bad input equals bad output.

[wejjr235]

Republican Governor of Georgia just extended Hide at Home Order until May 13th. I guess he wants to break all small business persons that represent the core of his support. I can’t wait to vote against that corrupt buffoon Loeffler that he appointed to the Senate. Doug Collins will end up with 75 percent of vote (if allowed to vote), but maybe she’ll give the Guv some of her insider trading money she received as a result of virus hysteria.

[SmokingJoe]

And consider this: They’ve point blank admitted that if you die and test positive fore the virus, it will be counted as a virus death, no matter what else contributed - like, say, getting decapitated in an auto accident.

This.
You die with coronavirus, the CDC, Fauci, Birx etc classify you as dying from coronavirus, even if you are shot in downtown Chicago.

[SaxxonWoods]

This is hopefully good news. I’m not going to use it as an excuse to denigrate others over who was “right” and who might have been “wrong”.

I’m just going hope this is good news for everyone.

[dfwgator]

I wonder if the Gov thought Loeffler was good in the sack?

[E. Pluribus Unum]

80,000 Americans died of the flu in the winter of 2017-2018 and nobody batted an eyelash.

[JayAr36]

80,000 Americans died of the flu in the winter of 2017-2018 and nobody batted an eyelash.

Wasn’t news worthy enough to generate an epidemic.

[Enlightened1]

Actually I think we need to call them out because they cost our economy A LOT OF MONEY, and A LOT OF PEOPLE lost their jobs.

All based on B.S.

A bare minimum they need to be fired and lose their pensions.

Although I think criminal charges need to be brought up since they Democrats, the NeverTrumpers, the D.C. Establishment and China all said they would sabotage the Trump economy.

I also remember those that screamed the sky is falling saying that people who were disagreeing with the numbers should be held criminally liable. Well guess what? It is a two way street. I agree. Time to hold the scum that lied to us with their phony models.

[SaxxonWoods]

Actually I’m not against calling out those you mention. I’m talking about citizens who were quite worried, etc. They didn’t cause any big problems by being careful. Hell, I’ve been careful too and I’m going to keep being careful.

I agree about leaders who have acted suspiciously though.

“In other news, Fauci said that the sun coming up this morning could be good news that the world might not end today.”

Yeah, that Fauci guy can go to hell.

[Honest Nigerian]

I keep looking for DATA!
And they (or “they”) don’t provide much.
I would really like to see overlays of the original projection, vs revised projection, vs actual to date.
I think Trump has been brilliant (again) in how he handles this.
But then he is the right man, at the right time.

[dhuls]

#OUAN Open up America Now!!

[Mogger]

Putting trust in any computer modeHling for something with as many unknown variables such as this is stupid.

If they were honest, it would be like this:

"How many people are going to die?"

"A lot".

"How many is "a lot""?

"We don't know."

[JeanLM]

I don’t think there is any more validity to the 80,000 you quote for the 2017-18 flu season, than for the original estimates for covid 19. They are both estimates. The CDC weekly deaths add up to 15,900 for 2017-18. Those include pneumonia deaths.

Truth is nobody knows how many died from the flu. Few tests are taken and very few autopsies. If a patient died with flu symptoms he might be counted. Would they have died a week later or a month? Nobody can say.

[CPT Clay]

Bump