[A lot of the financial pundits are talking about this being the next big bull market. I can’t see the future but I can’t help but think this a bull trap.]
It’s a little hard to say. The repo market froze up a little earlier, with margin calls being issued for loans collateralized with non-agency asset backed securities. There were a number of liquidity events in a lot of asset classes, which is why the Fed waded in with both feet. Now that the liquidity situation has stabilized somewhat, we may see some recovery in asset prices. But getting back to even could take years. It certainly did in 2008, and there wasn’t the uncertainty of a pandemic that, for resolved cases, has a ratio of dead to recovered of 4:6.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
I had assumed that Italy was an outlier. The problem is that for resolved cases, we are becoming Italy. And then there’s that nasty unresolved question of what happened in Bergamo, such that for March, this year’s death numbers were 6x last years:
https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronavirus-the-real-death-tool-4500-victims-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/
[We compared the number of deaths over the first three months of this year with the average figure of the last three years, in order to verify the increase in mortality across Bergamo’s territory - explains Aldo Cristadoro, founder of InTwig and professor in Digital methods for social research at Bergamo University -. Our evaluation, carried out with great accuracy by means of the official data provided by each local administration, tells us that during the month of March more than 5.400 people have died, and approximately 4.500 of these are ascribable to coronavirus. One year ago, in March, the total deaths were almost 900]
Eco di Bergamo is a local paper serving Bergamo province’s 1.1m people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%27Eco_di_Bergamo