“And that concern is going to lead to people holding back on spending money.”
Possibly. Certainly if that were true people would go to fewer public events, restaurants, etc. But if people have jobs and income I suspect those people would find other things on which to spend money. I also think there is a lot of pent-up demand that will explode in coming months. So I don’t necessarily accept his premise.
That pent up demand depends on pent up savings but with many many folks having no income for the duration that demand will be all in their minds. Lots of landlords are deferring rent but that is DEFERRING not cancelling. It will all come due with the end of the Great Universal House Arrest but there will be much reduced funds to pay it.